International Paper (IP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.41), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, IP sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 19, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.41+0.20 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.41 | +0.20 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.26% | -0.79pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.43% | +0.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.46 |
| Per-event yield | 0.99% |
| Annualized yield | 5.91% |
| Previously paid | Feb 23, 2026 ($0.46) |
| Last record date | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
IP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for International Paper (IP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.46 | -7.70% | $46.87 | >30 | no | no | -16.32% | -7.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -2.06% | $37.89 | 6 | no | yes | -6.15% | +0.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.42% | $47.76 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +3.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -2.59% | $48.63 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.52% | -1.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.58% | $55.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.51% | +0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -1.56% | $56.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.62% | +5.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.04% | $46.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.17% | +4.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 0.64% | $42.10 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.52% | +8.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -1.15% | $35.74 | 7 | no | yes | -5.43% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.46% | $32.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +1.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -1.61% | $35.42 | 15 | no | yes | -5.22% | -2.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -1.46% | $31.46 | 9 | no | yes | -7.79% | -1.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -2.55% | $39.28 | >30 | no | no | -8.81% | -5.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -1.20% | $36.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.34% | +0.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.05% | $43.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +0.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 0.36% | $47.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -1.40% | $46.57 | 2 | yes | yes | -12.28% | -1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.78% | $50.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.92% | -4.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.58% | $56.74 | 11 | no | yes | -3.79% | -1.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.63% | $60.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +1.81% |
- -7.50%
- +0.64%
- +3.33%
- -1.99%
- +0.38%
- +5.01%
- +4.99%
- +8.20%
- -1.84%
- +1.61%
- -2.53%
- -1.96%
- -5.92%
- +0.06%
- +0.58%
- -0.70%
- -1.48%
- -4.20%
- -1.04%
- +1.81%
IP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
IP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with IP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $92.00
- After-tax dividend
- $59.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$9.37
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$50.43
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.54%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~27.1%
IP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical IP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · IP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.85% | |
| -1.04% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.26% | |
| -5.92% | |
| -1.96% | |
| -2.53% | |
| +1.43% | |
| -1.84% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -7.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.