Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LECO sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.79.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.23% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.42% | +0.61pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.79 |
| Per-event yield | 0.32% |
| Annualized yield | 1.13% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.79) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
LECO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.79 | -0.46% | $244.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | +4.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.14% | $243.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +3.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.74% | $234.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.96% | +1.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.06% | $209.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +5.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.47% | $190.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.33% | -10.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.44% | $188.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.07% | -1.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.34% | $193.39 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.22% | -0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | 0.14% | $187.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | -0.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | 0.09% | $253.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.60% | -2.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.32% | $220.46 | 15 | no | yes | -5.98% | -3.86% | |
| Q3 | $0.64 | -0.22% | $180.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +0.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | -0.37% | $194.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | -0.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.64 | 0.43% | $166.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.70% | -7.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | 0.16% | $142.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +8.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -1.16% | $127.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.79% | -0.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.26% | $124.98 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.82% | +0.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.35% | $139.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.08% | -5.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -0.12% | $140.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.91% | -0.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | 0.06% | $131.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.90% | +2.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.01% | $131.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +2.31% |
- +4.47%
- +3.46%
- +1.15%
- +5.17%
- -10.94%
- -1.08%
- -0.85%
- -0.08%
- -2.12%
- -3.86%
- +0.53%
- -0.12%
- -7.22%
- +8.15%
- -0.10%
- +0.46%
- -5.61%
- -0.43%
- +2.44%
- +2.31%
LECO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
LECO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LECO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $158.00
- After-tax dividend
- $102.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$48.85
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.85
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.11%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.6%
LECO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LECO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LECO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.39% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -3.86% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.