Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LKQ is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$32.44
Method range
$13.27 – $37.06
median $32.85
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $32.44 | +28.78% |
| Exit multiple | $37.06 | +47.11% |
| Analyst target | $33.25 | +32.00% |
| Graham number | $13.27 | -47.30% |
- Forward DCF$32.44
- Exit multiple$37.06
- Analyst target$33.25
- Graham number$13.27
Stock price
$25.19
EPS (TTM)
$2.01
5Y EPS CAGR
2.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$32.44
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-1.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 22.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
2.4%
Your model implies
-1.0%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 47.7% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | -3.9% | -4.6% | -5.4% | -6.3% | -7.4% |
| 7.8% | -1.8% | -2.4% | -3.1% | -3.8% | -4.6% |
| 8.8% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -2.2% |
| 9.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 10.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.23
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$4.74B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.82
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
LKQ (LKQ) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.60% TTM
- Dividend Profile4.76% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.