Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LKQ is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$31.83
Method range
$13.27 – $37.25
median $34.17
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $31.83 | +26.23% |
| Exit multiple | $37.25 | +47.70% |
| Analyst target | $36.50 | +44.73% |
| Graham number | $13.27 | -47.37% |
- Forward DCF$31.83
- Exit multiple$37.25
- Analyst target$36.50
- Graham number$13.27
Stock price
$25.22
EPS (TTM)
$2.01
5Y EPS CAGR
2.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$31.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-0.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 20.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
2.4%
Your model implies
-0.7%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 47.7% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | -3.6% | -4.3% | -5.1% | -6.0% | -7.0% |
| 7.9% | -1.6% | -2.2% | -2.8% | -3.5% | -4.3% |
| 8.9% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
| 9.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 10.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.23
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$4.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.87
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
LKQ (LKQ) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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