Lockheed Martin (LMT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LMT sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.44+0.25 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | +0.25 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.33% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 80% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.32% | +1.71pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $3.45 |
| Per-event yield | 0.52% |
| Annualized yield | 2.64% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($3.45) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 27, 2026 |
LMT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lockheed Martin (LMT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $3.45 | 4.17% | $658.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +1.45% | |
| Q4 | $3.45 | -1.00% | $457.86 | 6 | no | yes | -4.50% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $3.30 | -0.40% | $455.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +1.04% | |
| Q2 | $3.30 | -0.85% | $482.38 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.08% | +0.36% | |
| Q1 | $3.30 | 0.56% | $450.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +7.13% | |
| Q4 | $3.30 | -0.79% | $529.41 | >30 | no | no | -7.69% | -3.04% | |
| Q3 | $3.15 | -0.14% | $568.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +1.27% | |
| Q2 | $3.15 | -0.92% | $470.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +0.06% | |
| Q1 | $3.15 | -0.73% | $432.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +0.15% | |
| Q4 | $3.15 | -0.45% | $445.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.56% | +1.18% | |
| Q3 | $3.00 | -0.35% | $452.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.06% | -5.82% | |
| Q2 | $3.00 | -0.75% | $447.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +3.75% | |
| Q1 | $3.00 | -0.51% | $479.49 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +0.45% | |
| Q4 | $3.00 | -0.85% | $484.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.02% | |
| Q3 | $2.80 | -0.65% | $425.11 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.18% | -0.63% | |
| Q2 | $2.80 | -1.68% | $450.56 | 6 | no | yes | -6.45% | +1.90% | |
| Q1 | $2.80 | 1.05% | $409.49 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.98% | +14.52% | |
| Q4 | $2.80 | -1.18% | $341.23 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.82% | +0.22% | |
| Q3 | $2.60 | -0.73% | $362.05 | >30 | no | no | -5.41% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $2.60 | -0.69% | $387.39 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.75% | +1.73% |
- +1.45%
- +2.40%
- +1.04%
- +0.36%
- +7.13%
- -3.04%
- +1.27%
- +0.06%
- +0.15%
- +1.18%
- -5.82%
- +3.75%
- +0.45%
- +0.02%
- -0.63%
- +1.90%
- +14.52%
- +0.22%
- -2.21%
- +1.73%
LMT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
LMT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LMT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $690.00
- After-tax dividend
- $448.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$131.62
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$316.88
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.1%
LMT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LMT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LMT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.67% | |
| -2.21% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +1.90% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -3.04% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +2.40% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.