LOW dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Lowe's Companies (LOW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LOW sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 21, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.22
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.20% | +0.22pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.26% | +1.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$1.25
Per-event yield
0.61%
Annualized yield
2.37%
Previously paid
Jul 22, 2026 ($1.25)
Last record date
Jul 22, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lowe's Companies (LOW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.01% | $203.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +6.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | 0.33% | $251.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.22% | -6.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | -0.36% | $268.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +0.83% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -0.40% | $245.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.01% | -2.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -0.07% | $226.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +0.79% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 1.40% | $219.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +2.57% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.68% | $264.35 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.53% | -0.56% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.57% | $272.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -3.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.76% | $238.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.05% | +3.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | 0.00% | $231.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -0.93% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -0.50% | $219.86 | 8 | no | yes | -4.69% | -1.93% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.12% | $188.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.47% | +1.75% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.69% | $234.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -0.24% | |
| Q2 | $1.05 | -0.02% | $211.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -1.90% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -1.22% | $205.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | 1.09% | $194.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.06% | +0.42% | |
| Q3 | $1.05 | 0.42% | $185.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.12% | +2.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.18% | $198.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +0.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -1.73% | $243.40 | >30 | no | no | -9.53% | -5.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | 0.05% | $221.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.10% | +4.57% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with LOW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical LOW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.09%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+1.73%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+1.92%
Best event
+0.61%
Worst event
-5.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LOW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.36% | |
| -5.17% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -1.93% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.61% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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