LW dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Lamb Weston (LW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LW sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 7, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.38.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.17
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.51% | +0.14pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.45% | +0.54pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.38
Per-event yield
0.88%
Annualized yield
2.85%
Previously paid
May 8, 2026 ($0.38)
Last record date
May 8, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lamb Weston (LW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.95% | $43.03 | 6 | no | yes | -6.67% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.87% | $45.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +9.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.87% | $62.19 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.32% | +0.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.56% | $57.07 | 21 | no | yes | -11.13% | -9.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.59% | $52.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.61% | -1.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.78% | $61.63 | >30 | no | no | -9.10% | -3.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.15% | $77.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +4.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -1.55% | $59.31 | 4 | yes | yes | -7.03% | +2.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | 0.32% | $82.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | +2.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.21% | $102.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | -1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.27% | $90.96 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.27% | +4.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.72% | $102.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.90% | -4.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.32% | $111.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.82% | +1.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.27% | $99.60 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.16% | -1.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.49% | $86.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.87% | -1.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.66% | $81.75 | 8 | no | yes | -3.29% | -1.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -1.00% | $65.89 | 16 | no | yes | -8.04% | -6.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.93% | $64.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +3.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.54% | $57.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.65% | +0.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | 0.09% | $65.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +0.70% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with LW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical LW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.54%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-10.87%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-26.20%
Best event
+3.28%
Worst event
-9.02%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.36% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -6.38% | |
| -1.46% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.46% | |
| -3.81% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -9.02% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +3.28% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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