Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MELI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$471,140.07
Method range
$163.03 – $471,140.07
median $2,494.72
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $471,140.07 | +26,085.94% |
| Exit multiple | $2,822.76 | +56.89% |
| Analyst target | $2,166.67 | +20.42% |
| Graham number | $163.03 | -90.94% |
- Forward DCF$471,140.07
- Exit multiple$2,822.76
- Analyst target$2,166.67
- Graham number$163.03
Stock price
$1,799.21
FCF / share (TTM)
$25.27
3Y FCF CAGR
133.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$557,690.93
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
133.6%
Your model implies
28.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 134% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 5.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 25.0% | 24.3% | 23.6% | 22.8% | 22.0% |
| 10.4% | 27.3% | 26.7% | 26.1% | 25.4% | 24.6% |
| 11.4% | 29.5% | 28.9% | 28.4% | 27.8% | 27.1% |
| 12.4% | 31.6% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| 13.4% | 33.5% | 33.1% | 32.6% | 32.1% | 31.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$7.72B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.35
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MercadoLibre (MELI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.