Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MELI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$480,370.49
Method range
$163.03 – $480,370.49
median $2,504.34
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $480,370.49 | +29,777.50% |
| Exit multiple | $2,842.01 | +76.76% |
| Analyst target | $2,166.67 | +34.76% |
| Graham number | $163.03 | -89.86% |
- Forward DCF$480,370.49
- Exit multiple$2,842.01
- Analyst target$2,166.67
- Graham number$163.03
Stock price
$1607.80
FCF / share (TTM)
$25.27
3Y FCF CAGR
133.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$568675.28
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
133.6%
Your model implies
26.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 134% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 5.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | 23.2% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 21.0% | 20.2% |
| 10.3% | 25.5% | 24.9% | 24.2% | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| 11.3% | 27.6% | 27.1% | 26.5% | 25.9% | 25.3% |
| 12.3% | 29.7% | 29.2% | 28.7% | 28.1% | 27.5% |
| 13.3% | 31.6% | 31.2% | 30.7% | 30.2% | 29.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$7.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.35
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MercadoLibre (MELI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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