MGE Energy (MGEE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MGEE sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27-0.18 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | -0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.41% | +0.28pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.42% | +0.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.58% |
| Annualized yield | 2.62% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.47) |
| Last record date | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 15, 2026 |
MGEE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MGE Energy (MGEE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.47 | -0.69% | $82.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.63% | -2.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -1.63% | $82.82 | >30 | no | no | -6.47% | -5.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | 0.05% | $86.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.46% | $90.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | 0.29% | $91.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | -0.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.27% | $104.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.62% | -3.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | 0.02% | $86.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +0.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | 0.18% | $78.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.29% | -0.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.58% | $63.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +26.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.50% | $73.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.37% | $73.96 | 10 | no | yes | -5.30% | -1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -0.57% | $72.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +9.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -0.35% | $71.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -0.74% | $70.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +0.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.54% | $78.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -0.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.90% | $80.73 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.85% | +0.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.01% | $73.15 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.36% | +5.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -1.22% | $75.25 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +2.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.10% | $80.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +1.89% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.07% | $74.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +1.33% |
- -2.47%
- -5.66%
- -2.60%
- -2.03%
- -0.77%
- -3.78%
- +0.64%
- -0.98%
- +26.30%
- -0.03%
- -1.72%
- +9.07%
- -1.35%
- +0.47%
- -0.08%
- +0.91%
- +5.38%
- +2.71%
- +1.89%
- +1.33%
MGEE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MGEE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MGEE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $96.00
- After-tax dividend
- $62.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$16.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$45.93
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.28%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~14.1%
MGEE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MGEE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MGEE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -1.72% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -5.66% | |
| +0.58% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.