MGEE dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
MGE Energy (MGEE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MGEE sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.28
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.28 | -0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.46% | +0.22pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.45% | +0.29pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.48
Per-event yield
0.63%
Annualized yield
2.62%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.48)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MGE Energy (MGEE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.48 | -1.52% | $75.50 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.42% | +1.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.69% | $82.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.63% | -2.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -1.63% | $82.82 | >30 | no | no | -6.47% | -5.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.05% | $86.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.46% | $90.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | 0.29% | $91.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | -0.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.27% | $104.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.62% | -3.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | 0.02% | $86.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +0.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | 0.18% | $78.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.29% | -0.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.58% | $63.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +26.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.50% | $73.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.37% | $73.96 | 10 | no | yes | -5.30% | -1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -0.57% | $72.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +9.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -0.35% | $71.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -0.74% | $70.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +0.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.54% | $78.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -0.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.90% | $80.73 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.85% | +0.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.01% | $73.15 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.36% | +5.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -1.22% | $75.25 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +2.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.10% | $80.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +1.89% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MGEE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MGEE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.12%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+2.36%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+0.50%
Best event
+0.67%
Worst event
-5.66%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MGEE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.48% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -1.72% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -5.66% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.63% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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