Scenario calculator
Enter EPS growth and exit P/E per scenario. The chart starts at the current share price (Now) and transitions the P/E from today's trailing multiple toward your Exit P/E over the horizon. Same live price and TTM EPS as the rest of the page.
Implied price path (by year)
Paths start at $1858.60 (Now); the P/E transitions from today's trailing multiple toward Exit P/E by the horizon year.
2031 (horizon)
| Price | Total | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $523.29 | -71.8% | -22.4% |
| base | $818.44 | -56.0% | -15.1% |
| bull | $1533.52 | -17.5% | -3.8% |
Base case: with about a 9% decline per year and a 9× exit multiple over 5 years, the model lands MKL near $818.44 — an implied about a 15.1% annual decline.
Sensitivity (base case)
Sensitivity grid — sweeps EPS growth and exit P/E around your base inputs. Simple mode only; bear, bull, and Advanced (revenue) paths are not included.
Implied share price at the horizon for each combination: EPS growth in the rows, exit P/E in the columns; other settings stay fixed.
| Row axis: EPS growth. Column axis: exit P/E.Exit P/E →↓ EPS growth | 1× | 4× | 9× | 14× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $48 | $216 | $457 | $698 | $938 |
| -14% | $65 | $292 | $617 | $942 | $1,266 |
| -9% | $86 | $387 | $818 | $1,249 | $1,680 |
| -4% | $113 | $506 | $1,070 | $1,633 | $2,196 |
| 1% | $145 | $653 | $1,379 | $2,105 | $2,832 |
Shade depth: darker fill within the same color band means a higher implied price in that cell (across the grid).
Annual diluted EPS
GAAP diluted earnings per share by fiscal year (from reported statements). Use it as context for the EPS growth assumptions in the scenario calculator above — not a forecast.
Across 14 fiscal years, diluted EPS went from about $25.89 in 2012 to about $169.22 in 2025.
Scale: -23.72 to 199.32 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.
Diluted EPS year-over-year change
Percent change vs the previous fiscal year in this series. If a fiscal year is missing in the database, the comparison is to the prior available year (not necessarily the prior calendar year).
Year-over-year EPS change in this window ranged from a high of +217.3% to a low of -135.7%.
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Gray fill from low to today; dot = today; amber tick = median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$0.3B
Beta
0.67
Vs market benchmark
Return drivers (illustrative)
Historical EPS growth and where today’s P/E sits vs its five-year median — same P/E basis as the scenario price paths chart above.
Historical EPS growth
Compound annual growth of reported diluted EPS over the last five fiscal years.
Vs median P/E
Current P/E is above the trailing five-year median (richer valuation vs that history).
Your EPS growth vs next-year analyst consensus
Same basis for every column: one-step implied EPS growth (next-year average estimate vs TTM). Consensus uses 4 EPS estimates. Δ (pts) is your growth minus consensus in percentage points, not “percent of consensus.”
| Scenario | Your growth | Consensus | Δ (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | -14.3% | -19.9% | +5.6 pts |
| base | -9.1% | -19.9% | +10.9 pts |
| bull | -3.1% | -19.9% | +16.8 pts |
Frequently asked questions
How is MKL's price target calculated?
Price targets here use projected EPS × exit P/E. Future EPS = TTM EPS × (1 + growth)^years, then price = future EPS × P/E. The tool pre-fills analyst consensus and historical ranges for Markel (MKL) so you can compare your assumptions to the data.
What is MKL's base-case price target?
With about -9% annual EPS growth and a 9× exit P/E over 5 years based on consensus from 4 analysts, the base case for Markel (MKL) lands near $818.44, implying roughly -15.1% CAGR. This is illustrative, not a forecast.
What P/E ratio should I use for MKL?
Defaults use the 5-year median P/E (about 9.5×) for the base case, the 25th percentile for bear and the 75th for bull. Adjust the Exit P/E sliders if you have a different valuation view.
What is MKL's expected return in this model?
Expected return depends on your assumptions. The calculator reports CAGR = (Future price / Current price)^(1/Years) − 1. This is illustrative only and not investment advice.
What growth rate do analysts expect for MKL?
Consensus from 4 analysts implies about -19.9% next-year EPS growth for Markel (MKL) versus the latest TTM. The base case uses analyst-derived defaults; tweak the EPS growth slider if you disagree.
Is MKL's P/E high or low historically?
MKL currently trades at about 13.0× earnings, 36.4% above its 5-year median of 9.5×. The historical multiples card shows the full 5- and 10-year range.
How fast has MKL's EPS grown over the past 5 years?
Markel (MKL) grew diluted EPS at about 24.9% per year over the trailing 5 fiscal years. Historical growth is one input; the bull and bear cases let you pressure-test what happens if the next 5 years differ.
What time horizon does the price target use?
The default horizon is 5 years; you can change it from 1 to 10 years. Longer horizons compound EPS growth and re-rating effects more strongly, so total returns become more sensitive to assumptions.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell MKL?
No. The price-target calculator is an educational tool that turns explicit growth and P/E assumptions into a model price. Peers in the Financial Services sector are listed below for context. It is not investment advice and does not predict future returns.
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