Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MSTR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
—
Method range
$221.75 – $1,854.42
median $284.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | — | — |
| Exit multiple | $1,854.42 | +1,439.70% |
| Analyst target | $284.67 | +136.36% |
| Graham number | $221.75 | +84.12% |
- Forward DCF—
- Exit multiple$1,854.42
- Analyst target$284.67
- Graham number$221.75
Stock price
$120.44
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.04
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.45
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
100.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -26559.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 98.3% | 97.5% | 96.7% | 95.8% | 94.9% |
| 14.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.9% | 99.1% | 98.2% |
| 15.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 15.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 15.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.08
Low vs growth
Net debt
$6.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
3.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Strategy (MSTR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation