Match Group (MTCH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MTCH sits noticeably below the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 7, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.20.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 83%-7pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 83% | -7pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.92% | -0.44pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 43% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.56% | -1.81pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.20 |
| Per-event yield | 0.62% |
| Annualized yield | 2.20% |
| Previously paid | Apr 7, 2026 ($0.20) |
| Last record date | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 21, 2026 |
MTCH Dividend Capture History — Last 7 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Match Group (MTCH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.68% | $32.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +5.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -0.59% | $32.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.56% | -1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.49% | $34.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.27% | -8.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -0.03% | $32.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +0.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -3.62% | $31.47 | >30 | no | no | -16.14% | -10.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -0.12% | $32.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | -2.45% | |
| Q4 | $2.00 | -4.82% | $41.46 | 2 | yes | yes | -10.76% | +7.84% |
- +5.13%
- -1.82%
- -8.98%
- +0.74%
- -10.17%
- -2.45%
- +7.84%
MTCH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 5 | 71% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 14% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 14% |
MTCH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MTCH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $40.00
- After-tax dividend
- $26.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$6.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$19.57
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.30%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~15.3%
MTCH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MTCH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
7 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MTCH (7)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +4.82% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -10.17% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.62% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.