Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MTCH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$202.01
Method range
$36.92 – $202.01
median $40.88
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $202.01 | +431.18% |
| Exit multiple | $36.92 | -2.91% |
| Analyst target | $40.88 | +7.49% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$202.01
- Exit multiple$36.92
- Analyst target$40.88
- Graham number—
Stock price
$38.03
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.72
3Y FCF CAGR
9.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$13.69
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
23.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -177.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.3%
Your model implies
23.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 20.4% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| 10.2% | 22.6% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| 11.2% | 24.7% | 24.2% | 23.7% | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| 12.2% | 26.8% | 26.3% | 25.8% | 25.3% | 24.7% |
| 13.2% | 28.7% | 28.3% | 27.8% | 27.3% | 26.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.94B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.30
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Match Group (MTCH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks9.86% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.05% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.