NACCO Industries (NC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NC sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17-0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | -0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.58% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -8.07% | -2.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.26 |
| Per-event yield | 0.46% |
| Annualized yield | 2.03% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.25) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
NC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NACCO Industries (NC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.25 | -1.53% | $57.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.62% | -10.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -2.82% | $48.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.39% | -2.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.05% | $39.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.71% | $36.48 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +4.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.34% | $32.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +0.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -0.75% | $32.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.41% | -4.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.57% | $27.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.65% | -7.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.92% | $32.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.15% | +1.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.69% | $33.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -13.09% | -10.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | 0.99% | $34.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.58% | +0.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 0.46% | $32.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.73% | -5.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -1.54% | $32.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.63% | +1.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.13% | $39.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.69% | -9.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | 0.05% | $44.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.62% | +5.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -2.43% | $46.58 | 8 | no | yes | -10.20% | -4.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | 0.91% | $56.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.64% | +1.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.00% | $32.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.57% | -8.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.03% | $30.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.86% | $25.57 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.40% | +2.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 1.47% | $25.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +9.03% |
- -10.24%
- -2.90%
- +2.15%
- +4.15%
- +0.86%
- -4.26%
- -7.29%
- +1.04%
- -10.57%
- +0.81%
- -5.96%
- +1.07%
- -9.35%
- +5.89%
- -4.08%
- +1.96%
- -8.24%
- +0.03%
- +2.06%
- +9.03%
NC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
NC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$22.32
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.19%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.8%
NC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.79% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.36% | |
| -4.08% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.44% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.