Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NCLH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$2.62
Method range
$2.62 – $21.29
median $12.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $2.62 | -86.02% |
| Exit multiple | $19.40 | +3.47% |
| Analyst target | $21.29 | +13.55% |
| Graham number | $5.24 | -72.05% |
- Forward DCF$2.62
- Exit multiple$19.40
- Analyst target$21.29
- Graham number$5.24
Stock price
$18.75
EPS (TTM)
$1.19
5Y EPS CAGR
-22.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2.62
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
11.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -615.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-22.9%
Your model implies
11.5%
Next-year analyst consensus
38.3%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| 13.2% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| 14.2% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| 15.0% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% |
| 15.0% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.03
Low vs growth
Net debt
$14.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.92
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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