NFG dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
National Fuel Gas (NFG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NFG sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.39
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | +0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.65% | +1.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.56
Per-event yield
0.71%
Annualized yield
2.80%
Previously paid
Jun 30, 2026 ($0.56)
Last record date
Jun 30, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for National Fuel Gas (NFG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.06% | $78.58 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.11% | $94.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.67% | +1.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.64% | $81.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -3.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.87% | $93.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.61% | -3.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.71% | $84.96 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -1.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.38% | $78.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.26% | -6.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.16% | $60.95 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +3.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.40% | $60.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +0.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.27% | $54.80 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.73% | $52.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +2.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -1.13% | $50.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.23% | +1.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.53% | $52.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | -2.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.26% | $50.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.59% | -0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.02% | $57.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +1.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.89% | $64.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.35% | -4.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -1.63% | $63.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.49% | +0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.40% | $67.60 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.16% | -3.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.46% | $69.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +2.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.40% | $64.49 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.71% | +0.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -1.25% | $54.28 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +3.91% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 9 | 45% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with NFG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NFG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.77%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+15.49%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+60.67%
Best event
+0.99%
Worst event
+0.56%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NFG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.84% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.71% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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