Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NFG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$294.18
Method range
$48.58 – $294.18
median $96.33
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $294.18 | +279.98% |
| Exit multiple | $91.66 | +18.40% |
| Analyst target | $101.00 | +30.46% |
| Graham number | $48.58 | -37.25% |
- Forward DCF$294.18
- Exit multiple$91.66
- Analyst target$101.00
- Graham number$48.58
Stock price
$77.42
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.70
3Y FCF CAGR
47.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1220.33
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
10.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 93.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
47.4%
Your model implies
10.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 47% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | -1.0% |
| 5.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| 6.7% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| 7.7% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| 8.7% | 17.1% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 14.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.29
Low vs growth
Net debt
$2.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.42
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
National Fuel Gas (NFG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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