Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NFG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$298.40
Method range
$48.58 – $298.40
median $89.75
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $298.40 | +260.13% |
| Exit multiple | $91.00 | +9.83% |
| Analyst target | $88.50 | +6.81% |
| Graham number | $48.58 | -41.37% |
- Forward DCF$298.40
- Exit multiple$91.00
- Analyst target$88.50
- Graham number$48.58
Stock price
$82.86
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.70
3Y FCF CAGR
47.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1,240.89
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
10.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 93.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
47.4%
Your model implies
10.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 47% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | -0.3% |
| 5.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| 6.6% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| 7.6% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% |
| 8.6% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 14.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.29
Low vs growth
Net debt
$2.79B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.39
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
National Fuel Gas (NFG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.12% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.61% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.