Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NVR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$14,553.00
Method range
$1,419.97 – $14,553.00
median $6,226.48
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $14,553.00 | +129.21% |
| Exit multiple | $4,987.64 | -21.45% |
| Analyst target | $7,465.33 | +17.58% |
| Graham number | $1,419.97 | -77.64% |
- Forward DCF$14,553.00
- Exit multiple$4,987.64
- Analyst target$7,465.33
- Graham number$1,419.97
Stock price
$6,349.28
FCF / share (TTM)
$120.39
3Y FCF CAGR
3.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1,920.10
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
19.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -230.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.0%
Your model implies
19.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% |
| 8.2% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 16.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
| 9.2% | 20.3% | 19.7% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| 10.2% | 22.6% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| 11.2% | 24.7% | 24.1% | 23.6% | 23.0% | 22.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$760M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.90
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
NVR (NVR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks10.27% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.00% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.