Northwest Natural Holding (NWN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.56), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NWN sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.56+0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.56 | +0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.90% | -0.21pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 68% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.72% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.49 |
| Per-event yield | 0.93% |
| Annualized yield | 3.71% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($0.49) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
NWN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Northwest Natural Holding (NWN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.49 | -1.19% | $53.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.13% | $47.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +3.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.84% | $46.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.85% | +2.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -1.85% | $40.60 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.23% | -0.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.91% | $43.78 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.74% | +1.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.21% | $40.49 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.19% | -0.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.88% | $40.00 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.92% | +2.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -1.08% | $40.74 | 19 | no | yes | -8.17% | -5.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.34% | $38.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.72% | $38.98 | 15 | no | yes | -10.34% | -7.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.78% | $37.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.59% | +3.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.41% | $43.68 | >30 | no | no | -7.03% | -4.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.96% | $46.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +4.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -1.58% | $50.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.72% | +4.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.57% | $47.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.89% | -0.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.23% | $53.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +1.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.02% | $49.17 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.60% | +0.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -1.01% | $47.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | +0.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.67% | $46.23 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +0.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.04% | $53.76 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.05% | +0.37% |
- —
- +3.21%
- +2.30%
- -0.15%
- +1.51%
- -0.02%
- +2.12%
- -5.75%
- +0.07%
- -7.04%
- +3.21%
- -4.27%
- +4.08%
- +4.11%
- -0.68%
- +1.40%
- +0.68%
- +0.30%
- +0.96%
- +0.37%
NWN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 35% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
NWN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NWN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $98.00
- After-tax dividend
- $63.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.62
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.50%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~25.2%
NWN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NWN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NWN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.89% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -4.27% | |
| +1.32% | |
| -7.04% | |
| +1.27% | |
| -5.75% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.93% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.