Oracle (ORCL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ORCL sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 10, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.50.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.14in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.33% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.55% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.35% |
| Annualized yield | 1.09% |
| Previously paid | Apr 9, 2026 ($0.50) |
| Last record date | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 24, 2026 |
ORCL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Oracle (ORCL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.02% | $143.66 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.33% | +24.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 1.06% | $189.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.04% | +1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 1.01% | $288.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | +8.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 1.75% | $235.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.53% | +5.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -2.18% | $139.69 | 12 | no | yes | -13.21% | -7.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.42% | $163.14 | 6 | no | yes | -6.57% | -1.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.36% | $178.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | -1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.20% | $142.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.00% | $124.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -2.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.52% | $103.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +5.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.18% | $109.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.25% | -0.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.16% | $114.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +5.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.29% | $95.92 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | 1.38% | $85.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +3.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -1.15% | $62.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +7.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -1.21% | $71.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.06% | -1.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.06% | $82.12 | >30 | no | no | -5.13% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.53% | $86.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | 0.08% | $92.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.22% | +3.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | 0.01% | $87.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +3.38% |
- +24.49%
- +1.02%
- +8.62%
- +5.70%
- -7.57%
- -1.05%
- -1.24%
- -2.56%
- -2.68%
- +5.28%
- -0.97%
- +5.94%
- +0.07%
- +3.81%
- +7.64%
- -1.86%
- -2.86%
- +1.91%
- +3.62%
- +3.38%
ORCL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ORCL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ORCL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.73
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$36.27
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.13%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.4%
ORCL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ORCL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ORCL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -2.86% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -1.05% | |
| -7.57% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.