ORCL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Oracle (ORCL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ORCL sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 9, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.14
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.28% | +0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.81% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.50
Per-event yield
0.35%
Annualized yield
1.42%
Previously paid
Jul 10, 2026 ($0.50)
Last record date
Jul 10, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 24, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Oracle (ORCL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.99% | $144.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.18% | -12.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.02% | $143.66 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.33% | +24.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 1.06% | $189.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.04% | +1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 1.01% | $288.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | +8.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 1.75% | $235.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.53% | +5.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -2.18% | $139.69 | 12 | no | yes | -13.21% | -7.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.42% | $163.14 | 6 | no | yes | -6.57% | -1.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.36% | $178.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | -1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.20% | $142.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.00% | $124.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -2.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.52% | $103.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +5.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.18% | $109.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.25% | -0.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.16% | $114.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +5.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.29% | $95.92 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | 1.38% | $85.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +3.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -1.15% | $62.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +7.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -1.21% | $71.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.06% | -1.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.06% | $82.12 | >30 | no | no | -5.13% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.53% | $86.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | 0.08% | $92.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.22% | +3.62% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with ORCL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ORCL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.29%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-5.74%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+61.15%
Best event
+0.51%
Worst event
-7.57%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ORCL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -2.86% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -1.05% | |
| -7.57% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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