Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ORLY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$139.13
Method range
$75.88 – $139.13
median $110.64
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $139.13 | +54.02% |
| Exit multiple | $75.88 | -16.00% |
| Analyst target | $110.64 | +22.48% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$139.13
- Exit multiple$75.88
- Analyst target$110.64
- Graham number—
Stock price
$90.33
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.94
3Y FCF CAGR
-9.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.57
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
22.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1093.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-9.5%
Your model implies
22.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 17.7% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 10.4% |
| 6.5% | 21.1% | 20.0% | 18.8% | 17.3% | 15.7% |
| 7.5% | 24.2% | 23.2% | 22.2% | 21.0% | 19.8% |
| 8.5% | 26.9% | 26.1% | 25.2% | 24.3% | 23.2% |
| 9.5% | 29.4% | 28.7% | 28.0% | 27.1% | 26.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.58
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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