Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PAYX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$141.76
Method range
$16.63 – $141.76
median $124.69
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $141.76 | +28.01% |
| Exit multiple | $140.58 | +26.95% |
| Analyst target | $108.80 | -1.75% |
| Graham number | $16.63 | -84.99% |
- Forward DCF$141.76
- Exit multiple$140.58
- Analyst target$108.80
- Graham number$16.63
Stock price
$110.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.44
3Y FCF CAGR
14.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$57.71
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
23.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -91.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
14.3%
Your model implies
23.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | 19.1% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 14.2% |
| 7.8% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| 8.8% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 23.0% | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| 9.8% | 27.0% | 26.3% | 25.6% | 24.9% | 24.0% |
| 10.8% | 29.2% | 28.6% | 28.0% | 27.4% | 26.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$3.47B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.82
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Paychex (PAYX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.67% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.03% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History10 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.