Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PAYX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$118.78
Method range
$19.79 – $174.54
median $114.39
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $118.78 | +18.16% |
| Exit multiple | $174.54 | +73.62% |
| Analyst target | $110.00 | +9.42% |
| Graham number | $19.79 | -80.31% |
- Forward DCF$118.78
- Exit multiple$174.54
- Analyst target$110.00
- Graham number$19.79
Stock price
$100.53
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.12
3Y FCF CAGR
11.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$68.71
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -46.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.3%
Your model implies
16.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 11% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% |
| 7.7% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% |
| 8.7% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 14.6% |
| 9.7% | 20.0% | 19.4% | 18.8% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| 10.7% | 22.2% | 21.6% | 21.0% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.36
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.83
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Paychex (PAYX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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