Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PDD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$221,880.13
Method range
$8.88 – $221,880.13
median $788.55
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $221,880.13 | +260,720.65% |
| Exit multiple | $1,459.34 | +1,615.46% |
| Analyst target | $117.75 | +38.42% |
| Graham number | $8.88 | -89.56% |
- Forward DCF$221,880.13
- Exit multiple$1,459.34
- Analyst target$117.75
- Graham number$8.88
Stock price
$85.07
EPS (TTM)
$65.40
5Y EPS CAGR
86.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$221880.13
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-38.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 100.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
86.1%
Your model implies
-38.9%
Next-year analyst consensus
8.4%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | -40.1% | -40.2% | -40.3% | -40.4% | -40.6% |
| 8.6% | -39.4% | -39.5% | -39.6% | -39.7% | -39.8% |
| 9.6% | -38.8% | -38.8% | -38.9% | -38.9% | -39.0% |
| 10.5% | -38.1% | -38.2% | -38.2% | -38.3% | -38.3% |
| 11.6% | -37.5% | -37.5% | -37.6% | -37.6% | -37.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$177.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
PDD Holdings (PDD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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