Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PDD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$216,362.60
Method range
$8.88 – $216,362.60
median $772.34
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $216,362.60 | +258,737.90% |
| Exit multiple | $1,438.19 | +1,620.53% |
| Analyst target | $106.50 | +27.41% |
| Graham number | $8.88 | -89.37% |
- Forward DCF$216,362.60
- Exit multiple$1,438.19
- Analyst target$106.50
- Graham number$8.88
Stock price
$83.59
FCF / share (TTM)
$11.71
3Y FCF CAGR
41.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2,737.41
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-7.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 96.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
41.4%
Your model implies
-7.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 41% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 4.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | -9.7% | -10.2% | -10.8% | -11.4% | -12.1% |
| 8.7% | -8.0% | -8.5% | -8.9% | -9.4% | -10.0% |
| 9.7% | -6.5% | -6.8% | -7.2% | -7.7% | -8.1% |
| 10.7% | -5.0% | -5.3% | -5.7% | -6.1% | -6.4% |
| 11.7% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$177B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
PDD Holdings (PDD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.