Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PEG sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.47in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.75% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.89% | +0.95pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 25 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.67 |
| Per-event yield | 0.80% |
| Annualized yield | 3.31% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
PEG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.67 | -1.00% | $84.04 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.85% | +1.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.38% | $79.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +1.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.75% | $80.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +2.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -0.77% | $80.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +1.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -1.23% | $79.09 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +4.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.89% | $87.90 | 25 | no | yes | -6.56% | -2.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.50% | $79.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +6.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -1.68% | $74.44 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -1.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.52% | $64.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -0.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.52% | $63.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.91% | +0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.07% | $59.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +4.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -1.26% | $62.72 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +0.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.66% | $59.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | +1.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.93% | $59.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.70% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -1.23% | $67.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.09% | -0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -1.45% | $68.95 | >30 | no | no | -15.61% | -11.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | 0.48% | $66.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.70% | +2.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.02% | $64.62 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.00% | +2.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.84% | $64.14 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.18% | -1.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.69% | $61.27 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.18% | +1.76% |
- +1.63%
- +1.53%
- +2.07%
- +1.98%
- +4.77%
- -2.10%
- +6.79%
- -1.61%
- -0.46%
- +0.57%
- +4.59%
- +0.18%
- +1.22%
- +1.55%
- -0.33%
- -11.44%
- +2.35%
- +2.23%
- -1.65%
- +1.76%
PEG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
PEG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PEG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $134.00
- After-tax dividend
- $87.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$16.81
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$70.29
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.42%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.1%
PEG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PEG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PEG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.83% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -11.44% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.75% | |
| -2.10% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.80% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.