Southern Copper (SCCO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.36), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SCCO sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.36+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.36 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.19% | -0.78pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.32% | -0.61pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $1.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.48% |
| Annualized yield | 1.93% |
| Previously paid | Feb 10, 2026 ($1.00) |
| Last record date | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 27, 2026 |
SCCO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Southern Copper (SCCO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.76% | $206.52 | 2 | yes | yes | -12.07% | -6.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | 1.43% | $137.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.18% | -8.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | 0.05% | $96.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | +1.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 1.96% | $88.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +1.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -4.14% | $94.44 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.46% | +0.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -4.64% | $110.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -12.67% | -10.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 0.63% | $96.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +4.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -0.72% | $76.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +3.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -3.13% | $70.66 | 6 | no | yes | -7.13% | +1.23% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -3.61% | $80.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -3.40% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.01% | $75.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.67% | -7.40% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.86% | $70.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.17% | +2.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.40% | $50.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.06% | +15.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.24% | $45.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +2.33% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.64% | $52.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.09% | +12.19% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.39% | $63.94 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.41% | +1.16% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -2.53% | $58.83 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.47% | -0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.73% | $63.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.33% | -4.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 2.94% | $73.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.82% | +2.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.17% | $67.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.60% | +5.25% |
- -6.23%
- -8.06%
- +1.76%
- +1.27%
- +0.78%
- -10.25%
- +4.64%
- +3.79%
- +1.23%
- -3.40%
- -7.40%
- +2.47%
- +15.31%
- +2.33%
- +12.19%
- +1.16%
- -0.29%
- -4.61%
- +2.88%
- +5.25%
SCCO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
SCCO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SCCO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$41.30
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$88.70
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.21%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~10.8%
SCCO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SCCO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SCCO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.88% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.70% | |
| +1.56% | |
| +2.39% | |
| +1.65% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.43% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.48% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.