Sempra (SRE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.59), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SRE sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 25, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.66.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.59+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.59 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.75% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.14% | +0.70pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.66 |
| Per-event yield | 0.69% |
| Annualized yield | 2.87% |
| Previously paid | Mar 19, 2026 ($0.66) |
| Last record date | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
SRE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Sempra (SRE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.66 | -0.74% | $95.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +1.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.97% | $89.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.18% | -1.32% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.59% | $89.98 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +4.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.75% | $75.02 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +0.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -1.27% | $71.09 | 8 | no | yes | -3.26% | -0.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.28% | $91.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.04% | -3.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -1.18% | $83.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -0.76% | $76.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -1.00% | $71.09 | 6 | no | yes | -3.11% | +1.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -1.02% | $72.81 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +2.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -1.47% | $71.66 | 28 | no | yes | -11.04% | -6.59% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.99% | $72.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +2.55% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.22% | $73.76 | 7 | no | yes | -6.07% | +0.20% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.22% | $78.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +1.04% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.57% | $83.13 | >30 | no | no | -10.47% | -7.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | 0.34% | $73.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -1.03% | $79.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.23% | +6.89% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.39% | $64.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.84% | $65.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | -1.64% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -1.17% | $67.40 | 30 | no | yes | -4.72% | -0.36% |
- +1.22%
- -1.32%
- +4.47%
- +0.99%
- -0.54%
- -3.22%
- +0.18%
- +0.84%
- +1.10%
- +2.25%
- -6.59%
- +2.55%
- +0.20%
- +1.04%
- -7.51%
- +1.37%
- +6.89%
- +4.25%
- -1.64%
- -0.36%
SRE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
SRE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SRE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $132.00
- After-tax dividend
- $85.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$19.01
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$66.79
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.35%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.7%
SRE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SRE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SRE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.36% | |
| +1.68% | |
| +1.71% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.56% | |
| -7.51% | |
| +1.46% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +1.63% | |
| -6.59% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -0.54% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.69% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.