Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$160.88
Method range
$19.42 – $913.57
median $279.34
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $160.88 | -82.28% |
| Exit multiple | $397.80 | -56.19% |
| Analyst target | $913.57 | +0.60% |
| Graham number | $19.42 | -97.86% |
- Forward DCF$160.88
- Exit multiple$397.80
- Analyst target$913.57
- Graham number$19.42
Stock price
$908.10
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.31
3Y FCF CAGR
-4.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$22.84
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
53.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3,875.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-4.9%
Your model implies
53.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 49.7% | 49.1% | 48.5% | 47.9% | 47.3% |
| 14.0% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 50.9% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 15.0% | 54.2% | 53.7% | 53.2% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
| 15.0% | 54.2% | 53.7% | 53.2% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
| 15.0% | 54.2% | 53.7% | 53.2% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.39
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$4.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.07
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Seagate Technology (STX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.