Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$161.43
Method range
$19.42 – $720.14
median $184.46
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $161.43 | -80.95% |
| Exit multiple | $207.49 | -75.52% |
| Analyst target | $720.14 | -15.02% |
| Graham number | $19.42 | -97.71% |
- Forward DCF$161.43
- Exit multiple$207.49
- Analyst target$720.14
- Graham number$19.42
Stock price
$847.47
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.31
3Y FCF CAGR
-4.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$22.90
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
52.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3601.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-4.9%
Your model implies
52.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 48.5% | 47.9% | 47.4% | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| 14.0% | 50.7% | 50.2% | 49.7% | 49.1% | 48.5% |
| 15.0% | 52.9% | 52.4% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 50.9% |
| 15.0% | 53.0% | 52.5% | 52.0% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| 15.0% | 53.0% | 52.5% | 52.0% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.38
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$4.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.08
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Seagate Technology (STX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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