STZ dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Constellation Brands (STZ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STZ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 29, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.22
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | -0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 47% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.98% | +1.01pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
Dividend
$1.03
Per-event yield
0.78%
Annualized yield
3.14%
Previously paid
Jul 30, 2026 ($1.03)
Last record date
Jul 30, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 13, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Constellation Brands (STZ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.03 | -2.08% | $131.75 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.47% | — | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.22% | $155.39 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.05% | -1.33% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -0.86% | $157.74 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +5.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.75% | $130.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | -1.53% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.76% | $175.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.88% | -3.21% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -0.94% | $185.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +1.26% | |
| Q1 | $1.01 | -0.33% | $170.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.15% | -4.11% | |
| Q4 | $1.01 | -0.45% | $239.74 | 7 | no | yes | -6.25% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $1.01 | -0.55% | $240.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +2.35% | |
| Q2 | $1.01 | 0.16% | $253.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +3.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.89 | -1.11% | $248.65 | 16 | no | yes | -3.01% | -1.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.89 | 0.23% | $234.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.89 | 0.09% | $270.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.63% | -2.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.89 | 0.32% | $228.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.95% | -0.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -1.16% | $231.99 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.25% | -2.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -1.14% | $239.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.62% | +2.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | 0.43% | $234.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.29% | +6.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.36% | $245.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.76 | -0.14% | $237.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.15% | -7.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.76 | -0.54% | $220.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +2.18% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with STZ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical STZ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.33%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+6.66%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-32.56%
Best event
+0.78%
Worst event
-1.67%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STZ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -1.67% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.42% | |
| -0.18% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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