Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STZ is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$181.63
Method range
$34.92 – $202.28
median $178.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $181.63 | +28.90% |
| Exit multiple | $202.28 | +43.55% |
| Analyst target | $175.70 | +24.69% |
| Graham number | $34.92 | -75.22% |
- Forward DCF$181.63
- Exit multiple$202.28
- Analyst target$175.70
- Graham number$34.92
Stock price
$140.91
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.98
3Y FCF CAGR
3.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$56.77
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
14.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -148.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.8%
Your model implies
14.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 4% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| 5.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% |
| 6.5% | 17.2% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 12.0% |
| 7.5% | 20.1% | 19.2% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| 8.5% | 22.7% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$11.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.38
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Constellation Brands (STZ) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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