TPL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.53), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TPL sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.53
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.53 | +0.22 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.26% | +1.01pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.61% | -1.44pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.60
Per-event yield
0.15%
Annualized yield
0.52%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.60)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Texas Pacific Land (TPL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.14% | $393.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.09% | +0.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 2.61% | $524.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +3.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.60 | -0.09% | $288.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +5.16% | |
| Q3 | $1.60 | -0.24% | $311.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.60 | 2.86% | $371.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -0.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.60 | 0.53% | $475.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.50% | -6.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.60 | 0.23% | $533.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -28.61% | -16.76% | |
| Q3 | $1.17 | -1.74% | $289.63 | 11 | no | yes | -11.78% | -8.95% | |
| Q3 | $10.00 | 0.30% | $244.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +6.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.17 | 0.65% | $204.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.82% | +18.31% | |
| Q1 | $3.50 | 1.48% | $171.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -0.59% | |
| Q4 | $3.25 | -0.01% | $183.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.08% | -6.43% | |
| Q3 | $3.25 | 0.89% | $215.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.07% | -3.28% | |
| Q2 | $3.25 | 1.11% | $152.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.12% | -1.18% | |
| Q1 | $3.25 | -1.56% | $202.45 | 26 | no | yes | -15.52% | -7.86% | |
| Q4 | $3.00 | -0.72% | $274.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.75% | +5.92% | |
| Q3 | $3.00 | -1.83% | $206.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.77% | +1.40% | |
| Q2 | $23.00 | -2.36% | $186.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.48% | +9.61% | |
| Q1 | $3.00 | 0.46% | $144.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +0.92% | |
| Q4 | $2.75 | 2.73% | $140.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.39% | -0.61% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with TPL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical TPL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.83%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+16.59%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+214.12%
Best event
+12.31%
Worst event
-8.95%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TPL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.96% | |
| +2.08% | |
| +12.31% | |
| +1.45% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -7.86% | |
| +2.13% | |
| +1.51% | |
| +1.77% | |
| +2.04% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +4.09% | |
| -8.95% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.15% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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