Texas Pacific Land (TPL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.55), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TPL sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.55+0.23 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.55 | +0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.19% | +1.01pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.61% | -1.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.60 |
| Per-event yield | 0.11% |
| Annualized yield | 0.62% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.60) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
TPL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Texas Pacific Land (TPL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.60 | 2.61% | $524.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +3.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.60 | -0.09% | $288.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +5.16% | |
| Q3 | $1.60 | -0.24% | $311.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.60 | 2.86% | $371.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -0.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.60 | 0.53% | $475.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.50% | -6.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.60 | 0.23% | $533.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -28.61% | -16.76% | |
| Q3 | $1.17 | -1.74% | $289.63 | 11 | no | yes | -11.78% | -8.95% | |
| Q3 | $10.00 | 0.30% | $244.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +6.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.17 | 0.65% | $204.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.82% | +18.31% | |
| Q1 | $3.50 | 1.48% | $171.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -0.59% | |
| Q4 | $3.25 | -0.01% | $183.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.08% | -6.43% | |
| Q3 | $3.25 | 0.89% | $215.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.07% | -3.28% | |
| Q2 | $3.25 | 1.11% | $152.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.12% | -1.18% | |
| Q1 | $3.25 | -1.56% | $202.45 | 26 | no | yes | -15.52% | -7.86% | |
| Q4 | $3.00 | -0.72% | $274.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.75% | +5.92% | |
| Q3 | $3.00 | -1.83% | $206.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.77% | +1.40% | |
| Q2 | $23.00 | -2.36% | $186.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.48% | +9.61% | |
| Q1 | $3.00 | 0.46% | $144.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +0.92% | |
| Q4 | $2.75 | 2.73% | $140.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.39% | -0.61% | |
| Q3 | $2.75 | -1.41% | $143.99 | 9 | no | yes | -7.40% | -4.33% |
- +3.07%
- +5.16%
- -3.06%
- -0.37%
- -6.43%
- -16.76%
- -8.95%
- +6.23%
- +18.31%
- -0.59%
- -6.43%
- -3.28%
- -1.18%
- -7.86%
- +5.92%
- +1.40%
- +9.61%
- +0.92%
- -0.61%
- -4.33%
TPL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
TPL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TPL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $120.00
- After-tax dividend
- $78.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$104.86
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-26.86
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.03%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-1.3%
TPL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TPL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TPL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.33% | |
| +1.96% | |
| +2.08% | |
| +12.31% | |
| +1.45% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -7.86% | |
| +2.13% | |
| +1.51% | |
| +1.77% | |
| +2.04% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +4.09% | |
| -8.95% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.11% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.