Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TPL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$645.50
Method range
$32.44 – $645.50
median $491.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $645.50 | +65.60% |
| Exit multiple | $344.64 | -11.58% |
| Analyst target | $639.00 | +63.93% |
| Graham number | $32.44 | -91.68% |
- Forward DCF$645.50
- Exit multiple$344.64
- Analyst target$639.00
- Graham number$32.44
Stock price
$389.79
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.24
3Y FCF CAGR
18.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$146.06
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
31.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -166.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
18.5%
Your model implies
31.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | 27.2% | 25.8% | 24.3% | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| 6.9% | 30.7% | 29.5% | 28.3% | 26.9% | 25.3% |
| 7.9% | 33.8% | 32.8% | 31.8% | 30.6% | 29.4% |
| 8.9% | 36.6% | 35.8% | 34.9% | 33.9% | 32.9% |
| 9.9% | 39.3% | 38.5% | 37.7% | 36.9% | 36.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
3.66
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$112M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.68
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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