Targa Resources (TRGP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TRGP sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.21-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.50% | +0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 53% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.69% | +1.50pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.25 |
| Per-event yield | 0.50% |
| Annualized yield | 1.63% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($1.25) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
TRGP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Targa Resources (TRGP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.05% | $250.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | — | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.75% | $201.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +5.42% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.01% | $151.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.18% | +14.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.92% | $167.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +0.31% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -3.49% | $178.11 | >30 | no | no | -13.28% | -10.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.23% | $205.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.94% | -1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.35% | $166.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +13.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.34% | $134.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.63% | -0.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.12% | $116.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.79% | -2.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.31% | $86.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.05% | $84.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +4.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.16% | $80.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +2.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.54% | $74.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.07% | -6.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -1.55% | $75.35 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.34% | -3.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.12% | $67.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.30% | +4.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.57% | $66.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.11% | -3.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.19% | $75.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.12% | -0.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -1.02% | $57.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +6.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.64% | $54.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.02% | +2.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | 0.40% | $42.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.87% | -0.84% |
- —
- +5.42%
- +14.22%
- +0.31%
- -10.23%
- -1.48%
- +13.15%
- -0.11%
- -2.83%
- +0.28%
- +4.33%
- +2.99%
- -6.09%
- -3.28%
- +4.15%
- -3.50%
- -0.15%
- +6.36%
- +2.30%
- -0.84%
TRGP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
TRGP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TRGP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $250.00
- After-tax dividend
- $162.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$50.03
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$112.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.3%
TRGP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TRGP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TRGP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -10.23% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.