Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TTD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$27.17
Method range
$3.13 – $176.49
median $27.08
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $27.17 | +54.56% |
| Exit multiple | $176.49 | +903.94% |
| Analyst target | $26.98 | +53.47% |
| Graham number | $3.13 | -82.19% |
- Forward DCF$27.17
- Exit multiple$176.49
- Analyst target$26.98
- Graham number$3.13
Stock price
$17.58
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.59
3Y FCF CAGR
26.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$48.11
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
12.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 63.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
26.7%
Your model implies
12.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 27% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
| 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% |
| 9.9% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% |
| 10.9% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 13.8% |
| 11.9% | 17.8% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$222M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.04
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Trade Desk (TTD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.