Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TTD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$28.20
Method range
$3.13 – $178.85
median $29.07
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $28.20 | +41.35% |
| Exit multiple | $178.85 | +796.50% |
| Analyst target | $29.95 | +50.13% |
| Graham number | $3.13 | -84.31% |
- Forward DCF$28.20
- Exit multiple$178.85
- Analyst target$29.95
- Graham number$3.13
Stock price
$19.95
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.59
3Y FCF CAGR
26.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$50.15
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
14.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 60.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
26.7%
Your model implies
14.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 27% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| 8.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% |
| 9.6% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.7% |
| 10.6% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| 11.6% | 19.2% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$222M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.02
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Trade Desk (TTD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation