V.F. (VFC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 79% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VFC sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 9, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 79%-16pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.21in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 79% | -16pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -9.20% | -4.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.09 |
| Per-event yield | 0.52% |
| Annualized yield | 2.19% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.09) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 19, 2026 |
VFC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for V.F. (VFC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.09 | 0.29% | $17.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.21% | -3.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.61% | $18.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +2.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | -0.66% | $15.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.19% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | 0.84% | $13.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.05% | -8.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | -3.50% | $19.13 | >30 | no | no | -18.24% | -13.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.23% | $21.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.00% | +6.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | 0.97% | $17.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +5.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | -1.55% | $13.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +2.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | 0.81% | $16.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.43% | -7.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.27% | $18.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +9.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -1.46% | $19.19 | >30 | no | no | -10.21% | -3.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.97% | $19.61 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.65% | +1.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.25% | $24.02 | >30 | no | no | -16.15% | -9.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -2.34% | $28.67 | 3 | yes | yes | -12.63% | -6.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.16% | $42.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.86% | -5.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.18% | $49.81 | >30 | no | no | -11.30% | -9.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 2.23% | $51.95 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.79% | +10.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -1.52% | $77.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -12.28% | -5.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.28% | $71.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.24% | -2.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.49% | $79.77 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +2.75% |
- -3.42%
- +2.53%
- -2.56%
- -8.22%
- -13.59%
- +6.28%
- +5.18%
- +2.36%
- -7.58%
- +9.89%
- -3.80%
- +1.02%
- -9.70%
- -6.24%
- -5.71%
- -9.66%
- +10.01%
- -5.50%
- -2.20%
- +2.75%
VFC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
VFC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with VFC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $18.00
- After-tax dividend
- $11.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$3.45
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$8.25
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.0%
VFC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical VFC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VFC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.61% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.96% | |
| -9.66% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.78% | |
| -9.70% | |
| +1.53% | |
| -3.80% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.42% | |
| -13.59% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.