VLO dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Valero Energy (VLO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VLO sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 30, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.25
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | +0.15pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 37% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.15% | -0.98pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$1.20
Per-event yield
0.38%
Annualized yield
1.51%
Previously paid
Jul 31, 2026 ($1.20)
Last record date
Jul 31, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 31, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Valero Energy (VLO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.20 | 0.20% | $311.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | — | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | 0.64% | $253.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.09% | -3.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | -2.42% | $197.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +0.35% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.12% | $180.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.56% | -1.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -1.48% | $139.37 | 14 | no | yes | -6.16% | -4.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | -1.35% | $134.33 | 16 | no | yes | -6.87% | -4.67% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | 3.16% | $139.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.33% | -2.91% | |
| Q4 | $1.07 | -0.58% | $142.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -1.68% | |
| Q3 | $1.07 | -0.38% | $161.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.54% | -5.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.07 | -1.09% | $155.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | +0.74% | |
| Q1 | $1.07 | -0.43% | $141.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | +0.25% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -1.74% | $126.70 | 6 | no | yes | -4.85% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -1.12% | $128.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.81% | +4.81% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -0.49% | $111.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | +1.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -1.34% | $140.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.15% | -5.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -2.25% | $140.71 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.13% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | 0.46% | $112.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.11% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | 1.24% | $120.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +3.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -1.44% | $86.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +3.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -1.33% | $77.94 | >30 | no | no | -15.70% | -5.14% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with VLO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical VLO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.14%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-2.74%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+328.89%
Best event
+1.13%
Worst event
-5.14%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VLO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.14% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -0.57% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -4.67% | |
| -4.05% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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