Valero Energy (VLO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VLO sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.86% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.15% | -0.96pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $1.20 |
| Per-event yield | 0.61% |
| Annualized yield | 1.93% |
| Previously paid | Feb 5, 2026 ($1.20) |
| Last record date | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 9, 2026 |
VLO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Valero Energy (VLO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.20 | -2.42% | $197.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +0.35% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.12% | $180.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.56% | -1.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -1.48% | $139.37 | 14 | no | yes | -6.16% | -4.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | -1.35% | $134.33 | 16 | no | yes | -6.87% | -4.67% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | 3.16% | $139.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.33% | -2.91% | |
| Q4 | $1.07 | -0.58% | $142.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -1.68% | |
| Q3 | $1.07 | -0.38% | $161.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.54% | -5.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.07 | -1.09% | $155.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | +0.74% | |
| Q1 | $1.07 | -0.43% | $141.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | +0.25% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -1.74% | $126.70 | 6 | no | yes | -4.85% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -1.12% | $128.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.81% | +4.81% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -0.49% | $111.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | +1.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -1.34% | $140.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.15% | -5.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -2.25% | $140.71 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.13% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | 0.46% | $112.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.11% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | 1.24% | $120.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +3.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -1.44% | $86.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +3.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -1.33% | $77.94 | >30 | no | no | -15.70% | -5.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -3.58% | $69.01 | >30 | no | no | -8.84% | -1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | 0.28% | $78.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | -0.41% |
- +0.35%
- -1.35%
- -4.05%
- -4.67%
- -2.91%
- -1.68%
- -5.59%
- +0.74%
- +0.25%
- -0.57%
- +4.81%
- +1.27%
- -5.34%
- -0.37%
- -0.22%
- +3.88%
- +3.78%
- -5.14%
- -1.72%
- -0.41%
VLO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
VLO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with VLO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $240.00
- After-tax dividend
- $156.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$39.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$116.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.30%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~14.9%
VLO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical VLO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VLO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.25% | |
| -1.72% | |
| -5.14% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -0.57% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -4.67% | |
| -4.05% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.61% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.