Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what VLO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$335.27
Method range
$87.40 – $422.02
median $310.86
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $335.27 | +7.83% |
| Exit multiple | $422.02 | +35.73% |
| Analyst target | $286.44 | -7.87% |
| Graham number | $87.40 | -71.89% |
- Forward DCF$335.27
- Exit multiple$422.02
- Analyst target$286.44
- Graham number$87.40
Stock price
$310.92
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.13
3Y FCF CAGR
12.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$185.50
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
18.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -67.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.1%
Your model implies
18.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% |
| 6.4% | 17.7% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 12.4% |
| 7.4% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| 8.4% | 23.3% | 22.6% | 21.7% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| 9.4% | 25.8% | 25.1% | 24.4% | 23.6% | 22.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.14
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$7.02B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.55
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Valero Energy (VLO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks3.97% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.50% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.