Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what VST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$122.40
Method range
$33.50 – $221.13
median $123.85
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $122.40 | -26.59% |
| Exit multiple | $125.30 | -24.85% |
| Analyst target | $221.13 | +32.62% |
| Graham number | $33.50 | -79.91% |
- Forward DCF$122.40
- Exit multiple$125.30
- Analyst target$221.13
- Graham number$33.50
Stock price
$166.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.93
3Y FCF CAGR
-80.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.20
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
42.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -85,115.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-80.6%
Your model implies
42.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -81% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7% | 39.2% | 38.4% | 37.6% | 36.7% | 35.8% |
| 10.7% | 41.7% | 41.0% | 40.3% | 39.6% | 38.7% |
| 11.7% | 44.1% | 43.5% | 42.9% | 42.2% | 41.5% |
| 12.7% | 46.5% | 45.9% | 45.3% | 44.7% | 44.0% |
| 13.7% | 48.7% | 48.2% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 46.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.03
Low vs growth
Net debt
$19.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.41
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Vistra (VST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks3.11% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.55% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.