Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what VST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$121.32
Method range
$33.50 – $227.78
median $120.98
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $121.32 | -18.45% |
| Exit multiple | $120.65 | -18.90% |
| Analyst target | $227.78 | +53.12% |
| Graham number | $33.50 | -77.48% |
- Forward DCF$121.32
- Exit multiple$120.65
- Analyst target$227.78
- Graham number$33.50
Stock price
$148.76
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.46
3Y FCF CAGR
-80.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.10
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
52.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -154019.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-80.6%
Your model implies
52.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -81% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.8% | 48.4% | 47.6% | 46.7% | 45.8% | 44.8% |
| 10.8% | 51.1% | 50.4% | 49.6% | 48.8% | 47.9% |
| 11.8% | 53.7% | 53.1% | 52.4% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| 12.8% | 56.2% | 55.6% | 55.0% | 54.3% | 53.6% |
| 13.8% | 58.6% | 58.1% | 57.5% | 56.9% | 56.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.03
Low vs growth
Net debt
$19.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.45
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Vistra (VST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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