Wabtec (WAB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.06), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WAB sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 22, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.06-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.06 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.16% | +0.51pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.01% | +1.02pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.31 |
| Per-event yield | 0.12% |
| Annualized yield | 0.44% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.31) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
WAB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Wabtec (WAB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.31 | -0.48% | $256.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +3.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.21% | $207.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.26% | -4.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.87% | $194.40 | 7 | no | yes | -2.92% | -1.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 1.23% | $199.32 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.08% | +2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.10% | $192.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.17% | -3.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.56% | $199.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | -2.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.00% | $156.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.86% | +3.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.23% | $169.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | -2.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.19% | $136.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.15% | +3.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | 1.26% | $113.12 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.72% | +2.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.26% | $113.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.09% | -2.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | 0.68% | $93.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +3.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | 0.10% | $103.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +2.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 3.15% | $96.48 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.70% | +2.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.30% | $94.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.99% | -0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.50% | $87.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +4.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -2.22% | $91.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.01% | +1.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.31% | $97.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.13% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.00% | $89.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | -4.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.07% | $81.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.11% | -2.62% |
- +3.41%
- -4.70%
- -1.41%
- +2.26%
- -3.38%
- -2.33%
- +3.46%
- -2.10%
- +3.99%
- +2.74%
- -2.06%
- +3.68%
- +2.41%
- +2.38%
- -0.84%
- +4.26%
- +1.94%
- -1.63%
- -4.34%
- -2.62%
WAB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
WAB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WAB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $62.00
- After-tax dividend
- $40.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$51.21
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-10.91
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.02%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.02%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-1.1%
WAB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WAB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WAB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.15% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| -1.41% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.12% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.