XEL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Xcel Energy (XEL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.41), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, XEL sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.59.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.41
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.41 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.13% | +0.62pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.59
Per-event yield
0.75%
Annualized yield
3.02%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($0.59)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 20, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Xcel Energy (XEL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.59 | -1.11% | $79.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | +2.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | 0.56% | $80.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.74% | -4.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.56% | $74.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.53% | $73.35 | 8 | no | yes | -2.73% | -0.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.83% | $69.07 | 20 | no | yes | -5.59% | -0.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.83% | $68.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +1.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -1.41% | $66.69 | 9 | no | yes | -6.16% | -3.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.13% | $63.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +1.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -1.29% | $54.34 | 18 | no | yes | -3.05% | +0.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -1.40% | $51.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +2.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.84% | $62.25 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +3.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.40% | $58.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +3.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.49% | $63.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +0.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.93% | $65.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +1.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.41% | $71.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | -2.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.40% | $75.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.23% | -2.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.35% | $68.39 | 8 | no | yes | -7.05% | -3.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -0.18% | $70.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | -0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.12% | $67.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +1.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.22% | $67.08 | >30 | no | no | -7.30% | -4.97% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with XEL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical XEL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.06%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
-1.20%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+34.10%
Best event
+1.06%
Worst event
-4.97%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · XEL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.97% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -3.10% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -3.09% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -0.85% | |
| -0.59% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.75% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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