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Seasonality for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) monthly and quarterly historical returns — seasonality heatmap and win-rate analysis.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) seasonality heatmap

Returns across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods. Cell color encodes signed magnitude; the scale auto-fits each table.

2026

Jan-10.1%
Feb-14.9%
Mar+1.9%
Apr+11.8%
May-3.6%
Jun-13.7%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

2025

Jan+9.7%
Feb-17.7%
Mar-2.1%
Apr+14.1%
May+11.1%
Jun+2.4%
Jul+8.0%
Aug-6.5%
Sep+5.4%
Oct-4.0%
Nov-17.5%
Dec-3.2%

2024

Jan+0.6%
Feb+43.8%
Mar+16.5%
Apr-15.0%
May+11.3%
Jun-7.1%
Jul+3.1%
Aug-8.7%
Sep+7.3%
Oct+10.9%
Nov+37.4%
Dec-3.2%

2023

Jan+39.9%
Feb+0.1%
Mar+23.0%
Apr+2.7%
May-6.9%
Jun+11.9%
Jul-4.1%
Aug-11.3%
Sep+4.0%
Oct+28.5%
Nov+8.9%
Dec+12.1%

2022

Jan-16.7%
Feb+12.2%
Mar+5.4%
Apr-17.3%
May-15.6%
Jun-37.1%
Jul+16.6%
Aug-14.0%
Sep-3.1%
Oct+5.5%
Nov-16.2%
Dec-3.7%

2021

Jan+14.3%
Feb+36.5%
Mar+30.0%
Apr-1.7%
May-35.5%
Jun-6.0%
Jul+18.4%
Aug+13.5%
Sep-7.0%
Oct+40.0%
Nov-7.1%
Dec-18.9%

2020

Jan+30.3%
Feb-8.7%
Mar-24.6%
Apr+34.2%
May+9.5%
Jun-3.3%
Jul+24.2%
Aug+2.7%
Sep-7.5%
Oct+28.1%
Nov+42.8%
Dec+47.1%

2019

Jan-7.6%
Feb+11.2%
Mar+8.0%
Apr+28.7%
May+62.3%
Jun+25.8%
Jul-6.3%
Aug-4.8%
Sep-13.5%
Oct+10.3%
Nov-17.5%
Dec-5.2%

2018

Jan-27.1%
Feb+2.1%
Mar-32.8%
Apr+33.4%
May-19.0%
Jun-14.7%
Jul+21.1%
Aug-9.2%
Sep-5.8%
Oct-4.6%
Nov-36.9%
Dec-7.1%

2017

Jan-0.3%
Feb+23.2%
Mar-8.9%
Apr+27.1%
May+66.4%
Jun+6.6%
Jul+16.4%
Aug+66.1%
Sep-8.5%
Oct+48.5%
Nov+53.7%
Dec+40.0%

2016

Jan-14.2%
Feb+18.6%
Mar-4.7%
Apr+9.1%
May+17.0%
Jun+26.8%
Jul-6.9%
Aug-8.6%
Sep+6.3%
Oct+14.4%
Nov+6.6%
Dec+31.1%

2015

Jan-33.0%
Feb+18.5%
Mar-4.4%
Apr-3.4%
May-3.1%
Jun+14.9%
Jul+8.2%
Aug-18.7%
Sep+2.2%
Oct+33.6%
Nov+19.3%
Dec+13.8%

2014

Jan+8.9%
Feb-31.7%
Mar-16.9%
Apr-1.7%
May+39.5%
Jun+2.3%
Jul-9.5%
Aug-17.6%
Sep-19.0%
Oct-13.0%
Nov+12.8%
Dec-15.2%

2013

Jan+51.1%
Feb+63.5%
Mar+178.7%
Apr+49.7%
May-7.5%
Jun-24.3%
Jul+8.9%
Aug+32.8%
Sep+0.6%
Oct+48.8%
Nov+471.0%
Dec-38.7%

2012

Jan+16.1%
Feb-11.4%
Mar+1.0%
Apr+0.8%
May+4.7%
Jun+29.1%
Jul+39.8%
Aug+8.7%
Sep+22.0%
Oct-9.7%
Nov+12.2%
Dec+7.5%

2011

Jan+83.3%
Feb+56.4%
Mar-8.8%
Apr+346.1%
May+149.7%
Jun+84.2%
Jul-17.1%
Aug-38.6%
Sep-37.3%
Oct-36.8%
Nov-8.6%
Dec+59.0%

2010

Jan+378.8%
Feb+60.6%
Mar+3.3%
Apr-45.2%
May+50.0%
Jun+20.0%
Jul+1,156.5%
Aug-11.6%
Sep+3.2%
Oct+211.0%
Nov+8.2%
Dec+44.1%

2009

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov-33.9%
Dec-16.4%

Avg

Jan+30.8%
Feb+15.4%
Mar+9.7%
Apr+27.9%
May+19.4%
Jun+8.2%
Jul+79.8%
Aug-1.6%
Sep-3.2%
Oct+25.7%
Nov+31.5%
Dec+8.4%

Median

Jan+8.9%
Feb+12.2%
Mar+1.0%
Apr+9.1%
May+9.5%
Jun+4.5%
Jul+8.6%
Aug-8.7%
Sep-1.2%
Oct+12.7%
Nov+8.2%
Dec-3.2%

Last 5Y Avg

Jan+4.7%
Feb+4.7%
Mar+8.9%
Apr-0.7%
May-0.7%
Jun-7.2%
Jul+8.4%
Aug-5.4%
Sep+1.3%
Oct+16.2%
Nov+1.1%
Dec-3.4%

Std Dev (σ)

Jan94.4%
Feb28.9%
Mar46.3%
Apr85.1%
May44.0%
Jun27.5%
Jul287.5%
Aug23.9%
Sep13.3%
Oct54.8%
Nov116.1%
Dec27.2%

Consistency (μ/σ)

Jan0.33
Feb0.53
Mar0.21
Apr0.33
May0.44
Jun0.30
Jul0.28
Aug-0.07
Sep-0.24
Oct0.47
Nov0.27
Dec0.31

Win Rate (%)

Jan59%
Feb71%
Mar53%
Apr65%
May59%
Jun63%
Jul69%
Aug31%
Sep50%
Oct69%
Nov59%
Dec47%

Winning / Losing Months

Jan107
Feb125
Mar98
Apr116
May107
Jun106
Jul115
Aug511
Sep88
Oct115
Nov107
Dec89

Longest Win / Loss Streak

Jan55
Feb52
Mar45
Apr52
May33
Jun43
Jul31
Aug24
Sep36
Oct62
Nov62
Dec32

Best

Jan+378.8%2010
Feb+63.5%2013
Mar+178.7%2013
Apr+346.1%2011
May+149.7%2011
Jun+84.2%2011
Jul+1,156.5%2010
Aug+66.1%2017
Sep+22.0%2012
Oct+211.0%2010
Nov+471.0%2013
Dec+59.0%2011

Worst

Jan-33.0%2015
Feb-31.7%2014
Mar-32.8%2018
Apr-45.2%2010
May-35.5%2021
Jun-37.1%2022
Jul-17.1%2011
Aug-38.6%2011
Sep-37.3%2011
Oct-36.8%2011
Nov-36.9%2018
Dec-38.7%2013
−45.2%+1156.5%

Frequently asked questions

Data & methodology

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