Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALGN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$13.05
Method range
$13.05 – $459.44
median $124.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $13.05 | -92.43% |
| Exit multiple | $459.44 | +166.40% |
| Analyst target | $204.50 | +18.58% |
| Graham number | $45.43 | -73.66% |
- Forward DCF$13.05
- Exit multiple$459.44
- Analyst target$204.50
- Graham number$45.43
Stock price
$172.46
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.68
3Y FCF CAGR
-8.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$8.24
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
37.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1,993.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-8.6%
Your model implies
37.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | 34.0% | 33.4% | 32.8% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| 12.0% | 36.2% | 35.7% | 35.1% | 34.5% | 33.9% |
| 13.0% | 38.3% | 37.9% | 37.3% | 36.8% | 36.2% |
| 14.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 39.0% | 38.4% |
| 15.0% | 42.4% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 41.0% | 40.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$965M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.67
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Align Technology (ALGN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.