Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALGN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$13.05
Method range
$13.05 – $458.96
median $124.51
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $13.05 | -92.22% |
| Exit multiple | $458.96 | +173.61% |
| Analyst target | $203.60 | +21.38% |
| Graham number | $45.43 | -72.92% |
- Forward DCF$13.05
- Exit multiple$458.96
- Analyst target$203.60
- Graham number$45.43
Stock price
$167.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.68
3Y FCF CAGR
-8.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$8.23
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
36.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1937.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-8.6%
Your model implies
36.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | 33.6% | 33.0% | 32.4% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| 12.0% | 35.8% | 35.3% | 34.7% | 34.1% | 33.5% |
| 13.0% | 37.9% | 37.4% | 36.9% | 36.4% | 35.8% |
| 14.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 39.1% | 38.6% | 38.0% |
| 15.0% | 41.9% | 41.5% | 41.1% | 40.6% | 40.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$965M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.70
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Align Technology (ALGN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation