Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1.06
Method range
$1.06 – $63.50
median $12.07
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1.06 | -97.52% |
| Exit multiple | — | — |
| Analyst target | $63.50 | +48.30% |
| Graham number | $12.07 | -71.80% |
- Forward DCF$1.06
- Exit multiple—
- Analyst target$63.50
- Graham number$12.07
Stock price
$42.82
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.73
3Y FCF CAGR
-37.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.97
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
24.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -4322.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-37.4%
Your model implies
24.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -37% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | 19.5% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| 9.8% | 23.3% | 22.7% | 22.0% | 21.3% | 20.5% |
| 10.8% | 25.5% | 24.9% | 24.3% | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| 11.8% | 27.6% | 27.1% | 26.5% | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| 12.8% | 29.5% | 29.1% | 28.6% | 28.1% | 27.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.01
Low vs growth
Net debt
$6.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.25
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Alaska Air Group (ALK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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