AON dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Aon (AON) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AON sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Nov 3, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.09
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.02% | +0.56pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.10% | +2.30pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$0.82
Per-event yield
0.23%
Annualized yield
0.88%
Previously paid
Aug 3, 2026 ($0.82)
Last record date
Aug 3, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Aon (AON). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.82 | 0.41% | $360.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.23% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | 4.77% | $311.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +0.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 1.00% | $349.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.88% | -11.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.37% | $340.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.27% | $355.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +3.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.02% | $354.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.20% | $370.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +4.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.32% | $366.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +4.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | 0.45% | $328.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | -0.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.77% | $281.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +2.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | 0.12% | $298.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.04% | +1.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | 0.44% | $308.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +5.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -1.00% | $319.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.52% | $332.86 | 7 | no | yes | -5.74% | -1.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.10% | $317.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +0.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -1.28% | $289.20 | 9 | no | yes | -5.14% | -0.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.26% | $292.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -1.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.14% | $318.00 | >30 | no | no | -14.74% | -9.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.30% | $270.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.53% | +6.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.18% | $321.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.93% | -9.98% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with AON's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AON ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.40%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-8.02%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+15.44%
Best event
+0.26%
Worst event
-9.80%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AON (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| -9.80% | |
| +0.19% | |
| -0.53% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -1.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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