Aon (AON) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AON sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 1, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.21 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.07% | +0.51pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 53% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.26% | +2.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.82 |
| Per-event yield | 0.26% |
| Annualized yield | 0.98% |
| Previously paid | May 1, 2026 ($0.82) |
| Last record date | May 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
AON Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Aon (AON). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.82 | 4.77% | $311.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.74 | 1.00% | $349.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.88% | -11.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.37% | $340.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | 0.27% | $355.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +3.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.74 | -1.02% | $354.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.20% | $370.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +4.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.32% | $366.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +4.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | 0.45% | $328.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | -0.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.77% | $281.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +2.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | 0.12% | $298.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.04% | +1.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | 0.44% | $308.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +5.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -1.00% | $319.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -1.52% | $332.86 | 7 | no | yes | -5.74% | -1.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.10% | $317.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +0.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -1.28% | $289.20 | 9 | no | yes | -5.14% | -0.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.26% | $292.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -1.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.14% | $318.00 | >30 | no | no | -14.74% | -9.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.30% | $270.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.53% | +6.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.18% | $321.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.93% | -9.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.52% | $263.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.38% | -0.66% |
- —
- -11.03%
- +1.45%
- +3.21%
- +0.86%
- +4.17%
- +4.79%
- -0.27%
- +2.84%
- +1.24%
- +5.88%
- -0.29%
- -1.16%
- +0.89%
- -0.53%
- -1.60%
- -9.80%
- +6.09%
- -9.98%
- -0.66%
AON Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
AON Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AON's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $164.00
- After-tax dividend
- $106.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$62.33
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$44.27
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.6%
AON Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AON ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AON (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| -9.80% | |
| +0.19% | |
| -0.53% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -1.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.26% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.