Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AON is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$864.41
Method range
$76.42 – $864.41
median $419.63
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $864.41 | +145.34% |
| Exit multiple | $433.76 | +23.11% |
| Analyst target | $405.50 | +15.09% |
| Graham number | $76.42 | -78.31% |
- Forward DCF$864.41
- Exit multiple$433.76
- Analyst target$405.50
- Graham number$76.42
Stock price
$352.33
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.69
3Y FCF CAGR
13.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$69.95
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
35.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -403.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
13.2%
Your model implies
35.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | 30.6% | 29.3% | 27.8% | 26.1% | 24.1% |
| 7.2% | 34.0% | 32.9% | 31.7% | 30.4% | 28.9% |
| 8.2% | 37.1% | 36.2% | 35.2% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| 9.2% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 38.3% | 37.3% | 36.3% |
| 10.2% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 41.1% | 40.3% | 39.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.71
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Aon (AON) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.81% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.87% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.