Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AON is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$877.84
Method range
$76.42 – $877.84
median $416.58
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $877.84 | +167.20% |
| Exit multiple | $434.75 | +32.33% |
| Analyst target | $398.40 | +21.27% |
| Graham number | $76.42 | -76.74% |
- Forward DCF$877.84
- Exit multiple$434.75
- Analyst target$398.40
- Graham number$76.42
Stock price
$328.53
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.69
3Y FCF CAGR
13.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$71.02
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
33.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -362.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
13.2%
Your model implies
33.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 29.4% | 28.0% | 26.5% | 24.8% | 22.8% |
| 7.1% | 32.8% | 31.7% | 30.5% | 29.1% | 27.6% |
| 8.1% | 35.9% | 34.9% | 33.9% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| 9.1% | 38.7% | 37.9% | 37.0% | 36.1% | 35.0% |
| 10.1% | 41.4% | 40.7% | 39.9% | 39.1% | 38.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.71
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Aon (AON) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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