APA (APA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, APA sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.25.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.18-0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.73% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.74% | -1.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.25 |
| Per-event yield | 0.66% |
| Annualized yield | 3.03% |
| Previously paid | Apr 22, 2026 ($0.25) |
| Last record date | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 22, 2026 |
APA Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for APA (APA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.35% | $37.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +7.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -2.03% | $26.54 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.88% | -0.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.89% | $22.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +0.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.86% | $18.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +7.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.97% | $15.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +6.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -2.24% | $23.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.76% | -1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.24% | $25.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.68% | -6.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -1.19% | $32.01 | 9 | no | yes | -11.59% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.83% | $32.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.88% | +0.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.59% | $30.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +5.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.95% | $43.30 | >30 | no | no | -11.85% | -6.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.71% | $38.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -2.58% | $38.79 | >30 | no | no | -13.90% | -7.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.66% | $45.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.60% | +1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.69% | $41.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +9.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -4.00% | $35.00 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.00% | +2.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | 1.26% | $44.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.58% | -6.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -1.85% | $32.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.59% | +2.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.06 | -0.40% | $27.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.61% | -1.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.03 | 0.68% | $17.56 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.68% | +8.57% |
- +7.90%
- -0.11%
- +0.93%
- +7.15%
- +6.39%
- -1.14%
- -6.17%
- -3.06%
- +0.96%
- +5.48%
- -6.74%
- +4.47%
- -7.42%
- +1.82%
- +9.71%
- +2.13%
- -6.21%
- +2.15%
- -1.12%
- +8.57%
APA Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
APA Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with APA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $50.00
- After-tax dividend
- $32.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$7.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$24.98
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.7%
APA Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical APA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · APA (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.14% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -7.42% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -6.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -3.06% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.61% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.66% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.