Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what APA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$234.01
Method range
$22.74 – $234.01
median $36.12
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $234.01 | +546.78% |
| Exit multiple | $32.54 | -10.05% |
| Analyst target | $39.70 | +9.73% |
| Graham number | $22.74 | -37.16% |
- Forward DCF$234.01
- Exit multiple$32.54
- Analyst target$39.70
- Graham number$22.74
Stock price
$36.18
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.03
3Y FCF CAGR
-6.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.44
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
52.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -8,160.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-6.1%
Your model implies
52.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -6% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 49.0% | 46.8% | 44.3% | 41.2% | 37.3% |
| 5.4% | 51.1% | 49.1% | 46.9% | 44.2% | 41.0% |
| 6.4% | 55.7% | 54.1% | 52.4% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| 7.4% | 59.7% | 58.4% | 57.0% | 55.4% | 53.6% |
| 8.4% | 63.4% | 62.3% | 61.1% | 59.7% | 58.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.14
Low vs growth
Net debt
$4.29B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.35
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
APA (APA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.20% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.76% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History8 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.