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Fair Value for APA (APA)

See growth priced into APA (APA): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what APA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$234.01

Margin of safety
+84.54% vs current price $36.18

Method range

$22.74 $234.01

median $36.12

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$234.01
  • Exit multiple$32.54
  • Analyst target$39.70
  • Graham number$22.74

Stock price

$36.18

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.03

3Y FCF CAGR

-6.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$0.44

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

52.4%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -8,160.1% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

-6.1%

Your model implies

52.4%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)6.4%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)-6%
3Y CAGR -6%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -6% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.0%49.0%46.8%44.3%41.2%37.3%
5.4%51.1%49.1%46.9%44.2%41.0%
6.4%55.7%54.1%52.4%50.4%48.1%
7.4%59.7%58.4%57.0%55.4%53.6%
8.4%63.4%62.3%61.1%59.7%58.3%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday6.1
5Y low3.9
Median6.1
5Y high10.3
P/SToday1.0
5Y low0.8
Median1.3
5Y high1.4
EV/EBITDAToday2.4· at low
5Y low2.4
Median3.3
5Y high4.7

PEG

0.14

Low vs growth

Net debt

$4.29B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.35

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions