Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what APA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$233.03
Method range
$22.74 – $233.03
median $37.48
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $233.03 | +537.21% |
| Exit multiple | $36.46 | -0.31% |
| Analyst target | $38.50 | +5.28% |
| Graham number | $22.74 | -37.83% |
- Forward DCF$233.03
- Exit multiple$36.46
- Analyst target$38.50
- Graham number$22.74
Stock price
$36.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.03
3Y FCF CAGR
-6.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.44
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
52.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -8276.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-6.1%
Your model implies
52.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -6% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 49.1% | 47.0% | 44.4% | 41.4% | 37.5% |
| 5.4% | 51.3% | 49.4% | 47.1% | 44.5% | 41.3% |
| 6.4% | 55.9% | 54.3% | 52.6% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| 7.4% | 60.0% | 58.6% | 57.2% | 55.6% | 53.9% |
| 8.4% | 63.6% | 62.5% | 61.3% | 60.0% | 58.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.14
Low vs growth
Net debt
$4.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.37
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
APA (APA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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