Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ARCC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$60.12
Method range
$7.52 – $60.12
median $18.92
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $60.12 | +219.93% |
| Exit multiple | $15.96 | -15.09% |
| Analyst target | $21.88 | +16.44% |
| Graham number | $7.52 | -60.01% |
- Forward DCF$60.12
- Exit multiple$15.96
- Analyst target$21.88
- Graham number$7.52
Stock price
$18.79
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.16
3Y FCF CAGR
-6.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.62
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1057.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-6.0%
Your model implies
25.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -6% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 21.0% | 19.6% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| 6.6% | 24.5% | 23.3% | 22.1% | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| 7.6% | 27.5% | 26.6% | 25.5% | 24.4% | 23.1% |
| 8.6% | 30.3% | 29.5% | 28.6% | 27.6% | 26.6% |
| 9.6% | 32.8% | 32.1% | 31.4% | 30.5% | 29.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.62
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ares Capital (ARCC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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