Ares Capital (ARCC) seasonality heatmap
Returns across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods. Cell color encodes signed magnitude; the scale auto-fits each table.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.7% | -6.4% | -0.6% | +6.3% | -0.9% | +0.1% | +1.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | +8.2% | -1.3% | -3.1% | -6.8% | +6.8% | +1.7% | +3.1% | -1.0% | -6.9% | -0.3% | +1.3% | +0.4% |
| 2024 | +0.9% | 0.0% | +5.4% | -1.0% | +4.6% | -1.1% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +1.7% | +1.0% | +4.8% | +1.0% |
| 2023 | +4.8% | -0.1% | -3.0% | +1.1% | +1.4% | +2.9% | +4.3% | -0.6% | +2.5% | -2.7% | +4.6% | +3.5% |
| 2022 | +4.3% | -1.2% | -1.8% | -3.3% | -4.3% | -5.2% | +8.2% | +1.3% | -12.0% | +15.1% | +1.1% | -3.4% |
| 2021 | +2.5% | +5.9% | +4.3% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +2.7% | +2.0% | -0.4% | +4.3% | +5.5% | -5.5% | +6.7% |
| 2020 | +0.9% | -8.6% | -35.5% | +19.0% | +15.0% | +0.6% | -2.4% | +4.4% | -2.5% | -0.9% | +19.2% | +4.9% |
| 2019 | +4.6% | +6.3% | +1.4% | +5.0% | -2.4% | +4.7% | +3.5% | +1.6% | +1.0% | -1.8% | +2.4% | +1.8% |
| 2018 | +1.4% | -1.0% | +3.0% | +1.0% | +5.3% | -0.3% | +2.3% | +3.7% | +0.6% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -6.3% |
| 2017 | +2.4% | +5.1% | 0.0% | +1.3% | -5.3% | +0.7% | 0.0% | -2.0% | +4.6% | -2.0% | +0.9% | -0.7% |
| 2016 | -2.5% | -1.8% | +11.6% | +2.3% | -2.3% | -1.8% | +6.7% | +6.7% | -1.8% | -1.3% | +5.0% | +5.2% |
| 2015 | +6.6% | +4.0% | +1.7% | -1.0% | -1.6% | +0.5% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -5.6% | +5.0% | +3.9% | -7.4% |
| 2014 | -0.4% | +1.9% | +0.2% | -2.6% | +0.4% | +6.0% | -6.3% | +2.4% | -3.5% | -1.1% | +2.9% | -2.8% |
| 2013 | +2.5% | +3.4% | -0.2% | +0.2% | -5.5% | +2.7% | +3.4% | -1.2% | +0.6% | +0.4% | +5.8% | -0.9% |
| 2012 | +2.6% | +5.3% | +0.2% | -1.9% | -5.8% | +8.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| 2011 | +1.9% | +6.2% | -2.9% | +4.5% | -5.1% | -2.5% | +0.5% | -6.0% | -7.2% | +12.5% | +0.5% | +1.8% |
| 2010 | -1.2% | +6.2% | +16.1% | +7.3% | -14.7% | -5.2% | +12.0% | +6.5% | +7.0% | +7.1% | -1.9% | +2.4% |
| 2009 | -25.4% | -23.6% | +51.7% | +21.1% | +30.9% | +9.7% | +12.0% | +2.8% | +22.5% | -4.9% | +10.8% | +10.6% |
| 2008 | -4.4% | -8.2% | +1.1% | -10.5% | +10.5% | -15.6% | +13.2% | +5.8% | -10.5% | -24.7% | -36.7% | +36.0% |
| 2007 | +4.1% | +1.6% | -7.8% | -1.3% | +3.4% | -7.1% | -7.6% | +5.3% | +1.8% | +2.3% | -9.7% | 0.0% |
| 2006 | +3.2% | +4.7% | +1.0% | -1.5% | +2.5% | 0.0% | -3.9% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +6.5% | +1.3% | +4.3% |
| 2005 | -6.8% | -6.2% | -1.7% | +1.1% | +2.2% | +7.1% | +0.5% | -0.5% | -6.6% | -6.0% | +1.2% | +5.7% |
| 2004 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +18.9% | +9.5% |
| Avg | +0.4% | -0.3% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +1.6% | +0.4% | +2.6% | +1.7% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +3.3% |
| Median | +2.1% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +1.6% | +0.6% | -0.1% | +1.5% | +1.8% |
| Last 5Y Avg | +3.3% | -1.8% | -0.6% | -0.7% | +1.5% | -0.3% | +3.6% | -0.0% | -2.1% | +3.7% | +1.3% | +1.7% |
| Std Dev (σ) | 6.7% | 7.0% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Consistency (μ/σ) | 0.06 | -0.05 | 0.13 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.52 | -0.02 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.39 |
| Win Rate (%) | 68% | 50% | 55% | 59% | 55% | 59% | 71% | 62% | 57% | 48% | 77% | 68% |
| Winning / Losing Months | ▲15▼7 | ▲11▼11 | ▲12▼10 | ▲13▼9 | ▲12▼10 | ▲13▼9 | ▲15▼6 | ▲13▼8 | ▲12▼9 | ▲10▼11 | ▲17▼5 | ▲15▼7 |
| Longest Win / Loss Streak | ▲9▼3 | ▲6▼5 | ▲3▼2 | ▲6▼3 | ▲5▼4 | ▲4▼3 | ▲6▼2 | ▲5▼1 | ▲3▼3 | ▲4▼5 | ▲7▼2 | ▲5▼3 |
| Best | +8.2%in January 2025 | +6.3%in February 2019 | +51.7%in March 2009 | +21.1%in April 2009 | +30.9%in May 2009 | +9.7%in June 2009 | +13.2%in July 2008 | +6.7%in August 2016 | +22.5%in September 2009 | +15.1%in October 2022 | +19.2%in November 2020 | +36.0%in December 2008 |
| Worst | -25.4%in January 2009 | -23.6%in February 2009 | -35.5%in March 2020 | -10.5%in April 2008 | -14.7%in May 2010 | -15.6%in June 2008 | -7.6%in July 2007 | -6.0%in August 2011 | -12.0%in September 2022 | -24.7%in October 2008 | -36.7%in November 2008 | -7.4%in December 2015 |
-36.7%+51.7%
2026
Jan-1.7%
Feb-6.4%
Mar-0.6%
Apr+6.3%
May-0.9%
Jun+0.1%
Jul+1.0%
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov—
Dec—
2025
Jan+8.2%
Feb-1.3%
Mar-3.1%
Apr-6.8%
May+6.8%
Jun+1.7%
Jul+3.1%
Aug-1.0%
Sep-6.9%
Oct-0.3%
Nov+1.3%
Dec+0.4%
2024
Jan+0.9%
Feb0.0%
Mar+5.4%
Apr-1.0%
May+4.6%
Jun-1.1%
Jul+0.5%
Aug+0.6%
Sep+1.7%
Oct+1.0%
Nov+4.8%
Dec+1.0%
2023
Jan+4.8%
Feb-0.1%
Mar-3.0%
Apr+1.1%
May+1.4%
Jun+2.9%
Jul+4.3%
Aug-0.6%
Sep+2.5%
Oct-2.7%
Nov+4.6%
Dec+3.5%
2022
Jan+4.3%
Feb-1.2%
Mar-1.8%
Apr-3.3%
May-4.3%
Jun-5.2%
Jul+8.2%
Aug+1.3%
Sep-12.0%
Oct+15.1%
Nov+1.1%
Dec-3.4%
2021
Jan+2.5%
Feb+5.9%
Mar+4.3%
Apr+2.9%
May+1.1%
Jun+2.7%
Jul+2.0%
Aug-0.4%
Sep+4.3%
Oct+5.5%
Nov-5.5%
Dec+6.7%
2020
Jan+0.9%
Feb-8.6%
Mar-35.5%
Apr+19.0%
May+15.0%
Jun+0.6%
Jul-2.4%
Aug+4.4%
Sep-2.5%
Oct-0.9%
Nov+19.2%
Dec+4.9%
2019
Jan+4.6%
Feb+6.3%
Mar+1.4%
Apr+5.0%
May-2.4%
Jun+4.7%
Jul+3.5%
Aug+1.6%
Sep+1.0%
Oct-1.8%
Nov+2.4%
Dec+1.8%
2018
Jan+1.4%
Feb-1.0%
Mar+3.0%
Apr+1.0%
May+5.3%
Jun-0.3%
Jul+2.3%
Aug+3.7%
Sep+0.6%
Oct-0.1%
Nov-0.7%
Dec-6.3%
2017
Jan+2.4%
Feb+5.1%
Mar0.0%
Apr+1.3%
May-5.3%
Jun+0.7%
Jul0.0%
Aug-2.0%
Sep+4.6%
Oct-2.0%
Nov+0.9%
Dec-0.7%
2016
Jan-2.5%
Feb-1.8%
Mar+11.6%
Apr+2.3%
May-2.3%
Jun-1.8%
Jul+6.7%
Aug+6.7%
Sep-1.8%
Oct-1.3%
Nov+5.0%
Dec+5.2%
2015
Jan+6.6%
Feb+4.0%
Mar+1.7%
Apr-1.0%
May-1.6%
Jun+0.5%
Jul-2.3%
Aug-2.0%
Sep-5.6%
Oct+5.0%
Nov+3.9%
Dec-7.4%
2014
Jan-0.4%
Feb+1.9%
Mar+0.2%
Apr-2.6%
May+0.4%
Jun+6.0%
Jul-6.3%
Aug+2.4%
Sep-3.5%
Oct-1.1%
Nov+2.9%
Dec-2.8%
2013
Jan+2.5%
Feb+3.4%
Mar-0.2%
Apr+0.2%
May-5.5%
Jun+2.7%
Jul+3.4%
Aug-1.2%
Sep+0.6%
Oct+0.4%
Nov+5.8%
Dec-0.9%
2012
Jan+2.6%
Feb+5.3%
Mar+0.2%
Apr-1.9%
May-5.8%
Jun+8.2%
Jul+4.0%
Aug+3.9%
Sep+1.8%
Oct+1.7%
Nov+1.7%
Dec+1.0%
2011
Jan+1.9%
Feb+6.2%
Mar-2.9%
Apr+4.5%
May-5.1%
Jun-2.5%
Jul+0.5%
Aug-6.0%
Sep-7.2%
Oct+12.5%
Nov+0.5%
Dec+1.8%
2010
Jan-1.2%
Feb+6.2%
Mar+16.1%
Apr+7.3%
May-14.7%
Jun-5.2%
Jul+12.0%
Aug+6.5%
Sep+7.0%
Oct+7.1%
Nov-1.9%
Dec+2.4%
2009
Jan-25.4%
Feb-23.6%
Mar+51.7%
Apr+21.1%
May+30.9%
Jun+9.7%
Jul+12.0%
Aug+2.8%
Sep+22.5%
Oct-4.9%
Nov+10.8%
Dec+10.6%
2008
Jan-4.4%
Feb-8.2%
Mar+1.1%
Apr-10.5%
May+10.5%
Jun-15.6%
Jul+13.2%
Aug+5.8%
Sep-10.5%
Oct-24.7%
Nov-36.7%
Dec+36.0%
2007
Jan+4.1%
Feb+1.6%
Mar-7.8%
Apr-1.3%
May+3.4%
Jun-7.1%
Jul-7.6%
Aug+5.3%
Sep+1.8%
Oct+2.3%
Nov-9.7%
Dec0.0%
2006
Jan+3.2%
Feb+4.7%
Mar+1.0%
Apr-1.5%
May+2.5%
Jun0.0%
Jul-3.9%
Aug+4.6%
Sep+4.4%
Oct+6.5%
Nov+1.3%
Dec+4.3%
2005
Jan-6.8%
Feb-6.2%
Mar-1.7%
Apr+1.1%
May+2.2%
Jun+7.1%
Jul+0.5%
Aug-0.5%
Sep-6.6%
Oct-6.0%
Nov+1.2%
Dec+5.7%
2004
Jan—
Feb—
Mar—
Apr—
May—
Jun—
Jul—
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov+18.9%
Dec+9.5%
Avg
Jan+0.4%
Feb-0.3%
Mar+1.9%
Apr+2.0%
May+1.6%
Jun+0.4%
Jul+2.6%
Aug+1.7%
Sep-0.2%
Oct+0.5%
Nov+1.4%
Dec+3.3%
Median
Jan+2.1%
Feb+0.8%
Mar+0.2%
Apr+1.0%
May+0.7%
Jun+0.6%
Jul+2.3%
Aug+1.6%
Sep+0.6%
Oct-0.1%
Nov+1.5%
Dec+1.8%
Last 5Y Avg
Jan+3.3%
Feb-1.8%
Mar-0.6%
Apr-0.7%
May+1.5%
Jun-0.3%
Jul+3.6%
Aug-0.0%
Sep-2.1%
Oct+3.7%
Nov+1.3%
Dec+1.7%
Std Dev (σ)
Jan6.7%
Feb7.0%
Mar14.5%
Apr7.1%
May9.0%
Jun5.6%
Jul5.7%
Aug3.3%
Sep7.4%
Oct7.8%
Nov10.7%
Dec8.6%
Consistency (μ/σ)
Jan0.06
Feb-0.05
Mar0.13
Apr0.28
May0.18
Jun0.07
Jul0.45
Aug0.52
Sep-0.02
Oct0.07
Nov0.13
Dec0.39
Win Rate (%)
Jan68%
Feb50%
Mar55%
Apr59%
May55%
Jun59%
Jul71%
Aug62%
Sep57%
Oct48%
Nov77%
Dec68%
Winning / Losing Months
Jan▲15▼7
Feb▲11▼11
Mar▲12▼10
Apr▲13▼9
May▲12▼10
Jun▲13▼9
Jul▲15▼6
Aug▲13▼8
Sep▲12▼9
Oct▲10▼11
Nov▲17▼5
Dec▲15▼7
Longest Win / Loss Streak
Jan▲9▼3
Feb▲6▼5
Mar▲3▼2
Apr▲6▼3
May▲5▼4
Jun▲4▼3
Jul▲6▼2
Aug▲5▼1
Sep▲3▼3
Oct▲4▼5
Nov▲7▼2
Dec▲5▼3
Best
Jan+8.2%2025
Feb+6.3%2019
Mar+51.7%2009
Apr+21.1%2009
May+30.9%2009
Jun+9.7%2009
Jul+13.2%2008
Aug+6.7%2016
Sep+22.5%2009
Oct+15.1%2022
Nov+19.2%2020
Dec+36.0%2008
Worst
Jan-25.4%2009
Feb-23.6%2009
Mar-35.5%2020
Apr-10.5%2008
May-14.7%2010
Jun-15.6%2008
Jul-7.6%2007
Aug-6.0%2011
Sep-12.0%2022
Oct-24.7%2008
Nov-36.7%2008
Dec-7.4%2015
-36.7%+51.7%
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