Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ATLO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$60.46
Method range
$18.70 – $60.46
median $29.57
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $60.46 | +102.81% |
| Exit multiple | $28.15 | -5.59% |
| Analyst target | $31.00 | +3.99% |
| Graham number | $18.70 | -37.28% |
- Forward DCF$60.46
- Exit multiple$28.15
- Analyst target$31.00
- Graham number$18.70
Stock price
$29.81
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.89
3Y FCF CAGR
-7.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$11.32
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
4.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -163.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-7.3%
Your model implies
4.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | -1.8% | -4.3% |
| 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -1.6% | -4.0% |
| 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| 8.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$40M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.30
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ames National (ATLO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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