Atmos Energy (ATO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ATO sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 25, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.35-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.63% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.20% | +0.64pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.55% |
| Annualized yield | 2.18% |
| Previously paid | Feb 23, 2026 ($1.00) |
| Last record date | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 9, 2026 |
ATO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Atmos Energy (ATO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.43% | $180.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.49% | +3.92% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.66% | $175.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -2.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -1.06% | $168.21 | 23 | no | yes | -3.10% | -1.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.01% | $157.28 | >30 | no | no | -4.17% | -1.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.83% | $150.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +0.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | 0.14% | $150.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -2.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.25% | $130.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +1.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.42% | $113.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +2.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.70% | $114.19 | 7 | no | yes | -2.78% | -0.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.65% | $113.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +1.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | -1.01% | $116.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +1.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.74 | -0.04% | $116.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.58% | -1.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.74 | -1.92% | $116.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.24% | -0.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.21% | $118.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -1.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.57% | $118.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.40% | -1.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.75% | $111.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +6.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.25% | $106.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +3.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -1.38% | $95.00 | 7 | no | yes | -6.36% | -1.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -1.01% | $98.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.15% | -0.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -0.23% | $98.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +1.50% |
- +3.92%
- -2.33%
- -1.12%
- -1.14%
- +0.25%
- -2.10%
- +1.97%
- +2.04%
- -0.57%
- +1.42%
- +1.51%
- -1.44%
- -0.36%
- -1.10%
- -1.19%
- +6.24%
- +3.47%
- -1.64%
- -0.64%
- +1.50%
ATO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ATO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ATO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$36.19
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$93.81
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.26%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.1%
ATO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ATO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ATO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% | |
| -1.64% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -0.57% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -1.14% | |
| -1.12% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.55% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.