Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ATO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$265.92
Method range
$83.93 – $265.92
median $165.58
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $265.92 | +49.00% |
| Exit multiple | $142.00 | -20.44% |
| Analyst target | $189.17 | +6.00% |
| Graham number | $83.93 | -52.97% |
- Forward DCF$265.92
- Exit multiple$142.00
- Analyst target$189.17
- Graham number$83.93
Stock price
$178.47
EPS (TTM)
$8.13
5Y EPS CAGR
8.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$265.92
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
3.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 32.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
8.8%
Your model implies
3.8%
Next-year analyst consensus
3.8%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 0.2% | -0.8% | -2.1% | -3.5% | -5.2% |
| 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% |
| 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.32
Low vs growth
Net debt
$9.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Atmos Energy (ATO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks
- Dividend Profile2.17% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History2 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.