Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ATO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$258.83
Method range
$83.93 – $258.83
median $160.01
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $258.83 | +52.04% |
| Exit multiple | $141.03 | -17.16% |
| Analyst target | $179.00 | +5.15% |
| Graham number | $83.93 | -50.70% |
- Forward DCF$258.83
- Exit multiple$141.03
- Analyst target$179.00
- Graham number$83.93
Stock price
$170.24
EPS (TTM)
$8.13
5Y EPS CAGR
8.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$258.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
3.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 34.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
8.8%
Your model implies
3.5%
Next-year analyst consensus
3.1%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | 0.0% | -1.0% | -2.2% | -3.5% | -5.1% |
| 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | -0.1% | -1.3% |
| 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.32
Low vs growth
Net debt
$9.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.65
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Atmos Energy (ATO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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